Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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231 FXUS63 KPAH 060408 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1108 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Any isolated to scattered showers and storms will end this evening as a frontal boundary passes on through the area. - High temperatures from the middle to upper 80s Thursday will cool to the to the upper 70s and lower 80s for the weekend into early next week. - Weak upper level disturbances will bring small chances of showers and storms to the region this weekend. && Updated Aviation discussion for 06Z TAF Issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A cold front will push on through our region this evening. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible through 02z-04z, then the front will move far enough to southeast to end our chances. Clouds will decrease this evening and overnight, with clear to partly cloudy skies expected by daybreak across the entire PAH forecast area. On Thursday, temperatures will be near to a little above normal in the middle to upper 80s, but northwest surface winds will be bringing in drier air. Dew points in the lower to middle 60s in the morning will drop into the 50s by late afternoon. Gradually cooler conditions will follow, with highs Friday in the lower to middle 80s, and readings over the weekend in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, which is 3 to 6 degrees below normal. Dew points will remain in the 50s Friday, gradually moderating back up into the upper 50s to middle 60s over the weekend. Over the weekend, an upper low sitting over the Great Lakes region will put the PAH fa in northwest flow. Models show a few weak disturbances in the flow bringing showers and storms to our region Saturday through Sunday evening. Models are in pretty decent agreement in good chances during the day Saturday, especially across the western half of our area, then gradually focusing the better chances across southern portions of our region Saturday night into Sunday. For Saturday, the NBM produces likely PoPs across portions of southeast Missouri, tapering off to slight chances over southwest Indiana. Chances will be lower overall by Sunday as the upper low moves farther east. Timing will continue to be fine tuned. Some models show the aforementioned upper low bringing a trof through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys late Sunday night into Monday, producing a smattering of QPF. The NBM at this point keeps our region dry as surface high pressure builds over the Central Plains. The surface high will move east through mid week, keeping us dry through Wednesday morning. There are some hints of convection chances returning by Wednesday afternoon with indications of an upper level disturbance, but time will tell. We should see a mild warming trend early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 One cold front passage occurring tonight will scour out the showers/storms that are already south and east of the terminals. The clouds will follow shortly, and this might lead to a little fog developing, although dropping dew points may offer a counter balance. The daytime will see west to northwesterlies with some gustiness potential in the northeast, mainly at KEVV/KOWB and some higher based diurnal cu possible 5-7K FT AGL. Another cold front makes passage, likely dry, as the column becomes increasingly moisture starved with time. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$