582
FXUS61 KPBZ 101138
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
738 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Below average temperatures are expected through early Tuesday
under an upper-level through pattern. Rising temperatures and
dry weather will characterize the mid to late week period.
Thunderstorm chances may return Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cool conditions will persist today under northwest flow.
- A few light showers may develop after 2pm.


--------------------------------------------------------------

Made some minor updates to sky cover and temperatures at 720
AM, otherwise the forecast is on track. As a shortwave trough
digs into the region from the Great Lakes, clouds will increase
from north to south through the day.  A few stray showers may
develop downstream of Lake Erie during the afternoon in
northwest flow and modest instability. With 850mb temps only
ranging between 5 to 6 degrees Celsius, maximum temperatures
will struggle to reach 70F north of I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Clear conditions tonight will drop temperatures into mid-40s
  with a lingering trough; pockets of fog may develop.
- Cool conditions persist into Tuesday.
- Ridging early Wednesday morning returns near to above average
  temperatures across the region.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Dry, quiet, and cool weather is anticipated tonight into early
Tuesday morning with a lingering upper-level low and clearing
clouds prompting radiational cooling. Probabilities range
between 60 to 95% that MinT`s will be less than or equal to
45F. Higher probabilities are noted in eastern Ohio where
persist clear conditions are likely. Hi-Res model guidance are
also suggesting pockets of fog in eastern Ohio and along the
West Virginia ridges. However, the probability of hazardous
driving conditions (low visibility) is still considered low.


Dry, quiet weather is expected Tuesday into Wednesday under weak
ridging. Temperatures will likely be near-average Tuesday as
cold air exits east. Wednesday, temperatures will trend above
the climatological average with sufficient warm advection from
the southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Warm, dry conditions are expected Thursday.
- Long range models are hinting that thunderstorm chances return
  Friday, there is a chance that a few storms could be
  considered strong to severe.
- Models have been consistent that hot conditions are favorable
  late week into early next week.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

With a ridging building to our south and elongated trough over
central Canada, zonal flow will advance warm conditions over the
Midwest into the region. Confidence is high that upper-80s
to near 90s will be observed at observation sites across the
region. Minus the heat index values in the low-90s for portions
of Ohio, no hazardous weather is expect Thursday.

Trough advancement out of the north will return the chance of
rain showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening. Several
runs of the long range models suggest convection may be
organized along the cold front. Probability of organized
convection (500J/kg and 30kts of effective shear) is 20% to
40% Friday evening with this noted disturbance.

Numerous long range models have been consistent that a ridge
axis will build across the CONUS and return warm, moist
conditions to the region. Heat impacts will need to be
monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At 12Z, MVFR ceilings were mainly confined to areas near the
Mason-Dixon Line and north of I-80. As a shortwave trough and
weak cold front/surface trough drop across the region today,
cloud coverage will increase from north to south. Model ensemble
probabilities still favor FKL/DUJ (and perhaps BVI) for
continued MVFR ceiling restrictions today, with lesser chance to
the south. Will keep VFR ceilings for most other terminals for
now. A few isolated showers are possible during the late
morning/afternoon hours, but impacts from these will be minor
and very brief at best, and have not mentioned for now in TAFs.
Wind will pick up out of the northwest with daytime mixing, with
occasional gusts to around 15 knots possible.

VFR conditions will return areawide this evening as much of the
remaining cloud cover dissipates after sunset. With cool
temperatures coming in behind the system tonight, there is some
question as to whether river valley fog develops. This will
depend on how much of a surface pressure gradient, and thus
wind, lingers overnight, and the level of dryness of the
incoming air mass. These factors will need to be evaluated in
upcoming issuances.


.Outlook...
VFR conditions are expected under building high pressure Tuesday
through Thursday. Restrictions in showers and thunderstorms return
Thursday night and Friday with another passing disturbance.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/CL
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...CL/MLB