801
FXUS61 KPBZ 081144
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
744 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet, dry weather is expected through early Sunday under high
pressure. A passing cold front will return light precipitation
to the region early Sunday morning. Near-normal temperatures
will continue over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Quiet weather and near-normal temperatures are expected today.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Warm air, associated with building ridge over Indiana/western
Ohio, will continue to track east early this morning and
dissipate any lingering clouds across the region.

Quiet, dry, and near-normal temperatures are expected to prevail
into Saturday evening under high pressure.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A passing shortwave and cold front will return light rain to
  the region Sunday.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Clouds will increasing from west to east tonight as winds shift
from the southwest and prompt warm, moist advection.

A shortwave is expected to advance across the Great Lakes into
our region early Sunday morning and return rain chances.
Hi-Res model guidance suggest that the probability of
measurable precipitation is considered elevated (above 50%)
between 3am to 8am Sunday, associated with the timing of the
front.

With a shallow moisture column (subsidence noted above 700mb)
and weak ascent, rainfall totals will likely range between a
trace to 0.20 inches across the region.

Probability of precipitation will decrease significant between
9am to 11am with noted low-level subsidence.

Temperatures will likely range between upper-70 to low-70s, near
to below average across the region. Lingering clouds will cause
temperature adjusts by a few degrees.

A brief period of dry weather is expected in the late morning to
early evening Sunday before a new shortwave ejects across Lake
Erie between 6pm to 8pm. Isolated showers may impact areas north
of Pittsburgh.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Persistent upper troughing will support below seasonable
  temperature and low probability rain chances Monday.
- A shift in the synoptic pattern suggest a warming trend mid-
  week and into the weekend.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

A combination of shortwave movement across the Great Lakes and
a building ridge over the Dakotas will reinforce the seasonably
cool temperature Monday and isolated afternoon showers favoring
northwest PA.

If clouds clear Monday night, low temps Tuesday morning
could be 10 degrees below average with cold advection aloft.

Ensembles favor gradual height rises through much of the work
week as surface high pressure centers along the Atlantic Coast.
Expect a continuation of dry weather and temperature rising near
to above seasonable averages through Thursday.

Variation remains high on the late-week period, with models
diverging into ridging versus troughing solutions. A ridging
outcome would translate to above normal temperature and low
probability afternoon thunderstorms while troughing would
translate to falling temperature and more widespread convection
along a passing cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail throughout the day along with west to
southwest winds generally 7-10 knots with infrequent gusts to
15 knots. Mid and high clouds begin to thicken after 21Z ahead
of an approaching disturbance which will bring showers and
predominantly MVFR ceilings (~60% chance of IFR at FKL/DUJ) to
the area after 06Z. Restrictions prevail thereafter through the
end of the 24hr TAF period, however I did opt to include a line
towards the end of the PIT 30hr TAF to reflect improving cigs
and northwest winds in the wake of the cold front passage which
occurs roughly in the 12-15Z timeframe Sunday.

.Outlook...
VFR returns by late Sunday morning behind the exiting cold
front. Additional restrictions and scattered showers are
expected again late Sunday night and Monday with another
crossing upper trough. VFR follows on Tuesday and Wednesday
under building high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Cermak