016
FXUS61 KPBZ 080054
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
854 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers are expected Sunday with a weak
upper level disturbances. Otherwise, dry weather is anticipated
with temperature fluctuating between near and below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dissipating isolated shower activity expected this evening.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Only minor changes for the evening update. PoPs were refreshed
to account for the scattered showers and clouds were adjusted as
well.

Previous discussion...

Isolated showers traversing northwest PA in association
with weak shortwave movement aloft will dissipate in occurrence
during the evening hours.

High pressure and dry advection aloft will support clearing
overnight skies and foster strong radiational cooling. Area
temperature will fall a few degrees below the seasonal average
as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather with near normal temperature is expected Saturday.
- Low QPF showers are likely with crossing cold front Sunday.

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Weak height rises ahead of the next shortwave trough within the
broader Great Lakes troughing will support more seasonable
temperature Sunday with plenty of insolation. Increasing cloud
coverage overnight amid moist advection aloft will buoy
overnight temperature.

The aforementioned shortwave will traverse the region Sunday
while pushing a weak cold front through the day. Precipitation
chances peak ahead of the boundary Sunday morning; this timing
should keep instability generation minimal and thus
lightning/severe probabilities low. The lack of strong column
moistening and weak overall ascent should keep QPF totals low as
most of the region has less than 20% probability of exceeding
0.25". Northwest PA and its closer proximity to upper jet stands
the best chance for seeing slightly higher amounts, but
probabilities of exceeding 0.5" are only 10%.

Shower activity will become more isolated through the afternoon
as the shortwave exits as dry advection commences in its wake.
Clearing overnight skies and cold advection effects will be
muted by elevated wind, resulting seasonable low temperature.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Persistent upper troughing will support below seasonable
  temperature and low probability rain chances Monday.
- Temperature moderation likely through the weak under
  influence of high pressure.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Additional shortwave movement within Great Lakes troughing will
reinforce the seasonably cool temperature Monday while
generating low probability / isolated afternoon showers favoring
northwest PA and the higher terrain. Clearing skies plus high
pressure Monday night will create the coolest temperature of the
weak, as lows Tuesday morning approach 10 degrees below average.

Ensembles favor gradual height rises through much of the work
week as surface high pressure centers along the Atlantic Coast.
Expect a continuation of dry weather and temperature rising near
to above seasonable averages through Thursday.

Variation remains high on the late-week period, with models
diverging into ridging versus troughing solutions. A ridging
outcome would translate to above normal temperature and low
probability afternoon thunderstorms while troughing would
translate to falling temperature and more widespread convection
along a passing cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Gusty winds will diminish after sunset. VFR conditions are
expected through the period. Renewed westerly gusts in the
15-20 knot range are expected after 15z Saturday with daytime
mixing.

.Outlook...
Scattered showers and associated restrictions return Saturday
night through Monday as another disturbance moves through the
Great Lakes region. High pressure brings widespread VFR back to
the area Tuesday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frazier
NEAR TERM...Frazier
SHORT TERM...Frazier
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...Cermak/Rackley