785
FXUS65 KPUB 252353
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
553 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- - Warm and dry today and tomorrow, with some isolated showers and
storms possible.

- Snow will spread over the peaks of the central mountains,
  lasting through tomorrow morning.

- Warming trend through Thursday, with increasing chances for
stronger storms across the far eastern plains Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

A broad trough is passing through our region aloft, bringing in some
mid-level moisture and some synoptic lift. Gusty winds and
increasing clouds will continue through the rest of the afternoon
and evening, leading to continued meteorological fire weather
conditions across large portions of the area. Additionally, isolated
showers have already started popping up across some of our mountain
peaks, and are expected to slowly propagate east later this evening.
Some of the high-res models do have some isolated thunderstorm
activity later this evening over the Pikes Peak Region, but even if
a storm or two does manage to form, coverage and precipitation
should be minimal and the storms would be short-lived.

Tonight into tomorrow, a weak front will push south across the
plains as the upper trough moves past, knocking Sunday`s high
temperatures down 5-10 degrees. Additionally, breezy northwest flow
will set in aloft and advect in more dry air. This will lead to
continued critical fire weather conditions for much of the area,
though fuels remain sub-critical for everywhere except parts of our
southeast mountains. Meanwhile, Snow showers will continue across
the peaks of the central mountains, dropping 3-5 inches of new snow
accumulation. Otherwise, our forecast area should remain largely dry
tomorrow, with the low-end chance for isolated thunderstorm activity
over the Palmer Divide during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Sunday night and Monday...Lighter northwest flow aloft will keep
drier air in place across CO during the evening, then a ridge of
high pressure begins to strengthen over the Four Corners and Great
Basin regions during the day Monday. Plan on very isolated
convection across the higher terrain during the afternoon, then
pushing east across the plains Mon evening. Plan on high temps Mon
in the 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for the
plains.

Tuesday...Upper ridge gradually pushes east across CO and the
Rockies on Tue, while another Pac low pressure system begins to
gather strength over the Pacific NW. Southerly surface winds and
moisture advection will lead to isolated to scattered shower and
storm development across the eastern mts and plains by mid-afternoon
and lasting into the evening, with the stronger storms closer to the
eastern border. High temps will warm into the mid 70s for the high
valleys, and upper 70s to near 90F for the plains.

Wednesday and Thursday...The upper ridge axis pushes east to the
eastern CO border on Wed, then into the central plains of the US on
Thu. Meanwhile, the Pacific NW low pressure system wraps up and
slides east along the US and Canada border, reaching MT Thu
morning.Both days will see an increase in precipitation and
thunderstorm chances across much of the area, with a greater chance
for strong thunderstorms for the far eastern plains. These two days
will also be the warmest days of the extended period, with maximum
temps pushing close to 80F for the high valleys, and near 90F for
the plains. A weak cold front is expected to drop south across the
Palmer Divide late Thu night, ushering in slightly cooler temps for
the weekend.

Friday and Saturday...Slightly cooler both days with weaker westerly
flow aloft across the region as the northerly low system pushes east
into the Great Lakes. There will still be enough available moisture
for a daily shot of isolated to low-end scattered convection for the
higher terrain and adjacent plains each afternoon and evening.
Moore

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 552 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Strong and gusty surface winds this afternoon will lessen heading
into the evening and overnight hours, though low level wind shear
will be a concern as strong northwesterly winds aloft continue for
much of the overnight period. With that said, low level wind shear
will weaken during the early morning hours. Otherwise, dry
conditions are expected for this TAF period, with some virga
possible this afternoon, mainly around KCOS.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Strong and
gusty winds will lessen throughout the rest of the afternoon and
evening, and remain light overnight. Winds will slowly increase
tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise dry conditions with periods of mid
level clouds are expected through this TAF period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ225.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...SIMCOE