Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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761 FXUS65 KPUB 100454 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1054 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today, with main risks being hail and torrential rainfall. - Showers and strong thunderstorms are expected for tomorrow as well, with primary risks being heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. - A warming and drying trend kicks off Tuesday, with near-record heat expected by Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 234 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Currently.. Showers and thunderstorms have already developed across the high country, one of which is already showing signs of being severe over the Wet Mountain Valley. Stronger storms are beginning to develop over the Pikes Peak region this hour as well. Dewpoints are very high over the area, with many locations in the many locations in the 50s and low 60s this hour. Temperatures are in 70s over the plains. Winds are southeasterly. SPC mesoanalysis is showing around 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE over our eastern mountains and the I-25 corridor for the 2pm to 4pm timeframe. Supercell composites of 2 are being analyzed over southern Fremont, western Pueblo, and Custer counties, which is where our current severe warning is out. Dewpoints in this area have been undersold by models all morning. Rest of Today and Tonight.. Easterly upslope has brought in additional moisture, and is fueling today`s CAPE driven thunderstorm activity. The main differences between today and yesterday will be the lack of sheer and steering flow, and the increase in moisture. This will make for slower moving and more efficient rain-maker types of thunderstorms across our area. With the amount of instability we have present in our atmosphere though, we still can`t rule hail up to 1.5 inches and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Though today`s severe threat will be more torrential rainfall and localized flash flooding focused, we could see impacts from damaging winds and hail across our eastern mountains and the I-25 corridor. Storm look to push southeast throughout the late evening hours, with most convection pushing down into our southeast plains by around 11pm this evening. Depending on lingering moisture from outflow boundaries, most areas look to be dry by the early morning hours of tomorrow, though some high res models guidance does keep showers over portions of our plains well into the overnight hours. Tomorrow... Models bring a weaker/open low south of our border tomorrow which, in combination with remnant pacific moisture from this weekend`s event, will help to spread another round of showers and thunderstorms across the area for tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening. Our temperatures increase by a couple of degrees, and our dewpoints decrease by a couple of degrees, but for the most part we will continue to see a risk of torrential rain and localized flash flooding due to slow moving storms, possible training storms, and already cresting local waterways. Urban areas that see high amounts of rainfall today could see localized flash flooding tomorrow as well. SPC has us outlooked for a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across our eastern mountains and the I-25 corridor, and WPC has most of our mountains outlooked for excessive rainfall as well. Burn scars will be more at risk tomorrow, especially any that see rain today. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 234 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Tuesday.. Models bring a ridging pattern back over our region by Tuesday, which will kick off another warming and drying trend that will persist for the Tuesday through Thursday portion of this week. For Tuesday, enough lingering moisture looks to be present for isolated to scattered high-based showers and weak thunderstorms over most of the forecast area. Our higher terrain and mountain adjacent locations should see some decent rainfall out of storms still, but our eastern plains locations could end up seeing more gusty outflow winds than meaningful rain with Tuesday`s storms if we dry out as much as models are currently pointing towards. Temperatures warm back up to several degrees above where we`ll be on Monday, but only two or three degrees above normal for most locations. Highs look to be in the mid to upper 80s across out plains, with upper 70s and low 80s for mountain valleys, and 60s and 70s for higher terrain locations. Wednesday and Thursday.. As ridging continues to build, we continue to get hotter and drier through this period. Pops and qpf both decrease in coverage and intensity, and become restricted to the mountains for Wednesday, and mostly non-existent for Thursday. This means that we could see a few stray showers and weak storms over the high country on Wednesday, though they will likely be gusty wind-makers moreso than rain- makers, and precip is not likely for most areas on Thursday. Temperature-wise, expect a steady climb to near record heat by Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 90s across the plains on Wednesday and widespread triple digits for many locations on Thursday. It is still several days out, but all three of our climate sites are forecast to come within a degree or two of our record highs for Thursday. (Colorado Springs record: 95, Pueblo record: 102, Alamosa record: 90) Friday Onwards.. For Friday, models bring a low onshore over California late Thursday, and into the Four Corners region by Friday evening. This system will bring Pacific moisture and southwesterly flow into our region, which should help to spark showers and thunderstorms for at least the Friday and possibly Saturday timeframe as well depending on timing, trajectory, and lingering moisture associated with the system after it passes through. It`s too early to tell exactly how this system will play out, but it seems likely that most areas will see rain and storm chances for at least Friday. Another warming and drying trend looks to follow suit quickly after the departing Friday system. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1055 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Moist upslope flow will develop MVFR and IFR stratus at COS and PUB through the early morning hours of Monday. Stratus to lift by 16Z with VFR conditions expected to prevail through the rest of the taf period. As for storms, should see development aft 19Z over the higher terrain, with the potential for storms to push east across the I-25 Corridor after 20Z, however, there remains too low a chance to include more than VCTS for both COS and PUB. Mainly VFR conditions expected at ALS over the next 24 hours. ALS has the best chances of seeing storms at the terminal after 19Z. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 234 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Rapid snow melt continues, leading to elevated flows along the Arkansas River from Leadville to Avondale through at least Monday, along with smaller creeks and streams close to the mountains. While water levels are generally expected to stay within their banks, fast flows can still be dangerous. Heavy rainfall today and tomorrow could increase flash flood potential for the southeast mountains and eastern plains, especially for waters with already elevated flows. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...MW HYDROLOGY...EHR