883
FXUS65 KPUB 111728
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1128 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop later today,
 mainly over the higher terrain and along the I-25 corridor.

-Stronger to severe storms may occur along and just east of the
 I-25 corridor, which could produce gusty outflow winds to 60
 mph and hail up to quarter size.

-Warming up and drying out Wednesday and Thursday with record
 temperatures possible.

-Showers and thunderstorms chances increase Thursday night and
 Friday.

-Warmer, drier and windier conditions leading to increasing fire
 danger Sunday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 241 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Detailed discussion:

Today...

A major shortwave downstream will continue to pull away from
the region, with some residual mid-level moisture in it`s wake
and weak troughing with northwesterly flow that will allow for
convection to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain
with orographic lifting and the drift southeastward and over the
I-25 corridor. Given that there will be some good upslope winds
and quite conditionally unstable by later this afternoon with
MLCAPE values exceeding 2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear
approaching 30 kts in some locations along the I-25 corridor and
just east, there will be to possibility for some of these
storms to become strong to severe. If this does occur, it could
produce gusty outflow winds to 60 mph and hail of possibly up to
quarter size. The better amount of mid- level moisture looks to
remain mainly south of Highway 50, although there will likely
be storms developing over the Pike`s Peak Region (PPR) and
Ramparts with better forcing in place that make their way over
the Palmer Divide and Colorado Springs/Fountain area, which may
become severe as they do. CAMs and HREF paintballs target all
areas along the I-25 corridor. The HRRR does peg most of the
convection developing around 2 to 3 PM over these areas,
especially over the PPR. The NAMNest is similar with the timing
and areas of convection, and also shows most of the higher
concentration of storms over the Ramparts/PPR and also the
southern Sangre de Cristos. Most of the storms look to lose
their intensity quickly as they move further towards the east
since there will be lesser CAPE and more CIN (capping) in place.
They will also likely dissipate shortly after sunset as daytime
heating is lost and the lower levels become more stable.

With easterly winds over the plains, it will keep in the
relatively cooler airmass, although it will be warming up and
closer to the seasonal average for most locations. Expect highs
to top out around the 90 degree mark for most areas across the
plains, especially within the lower Arkansas River Valley. For
the San Luis Valley and upper Arkansas River Valley, it will be
around the 80 degree mark, and generally in the 50s and 60s for
the higher elevations and 70s within the high mountain valleys.

Tonight...

Skies will continue to clear with relatively light winds
expected across the region. This will allow for radiational
cooling to drop temperatures into the mid 50s to low 60s across
the plains, and generally in the 40s to low 50s for high
country, with even a few upper 30s for the highest elevations.
-Stewey

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 241 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Wednesday-Thursday...Latest model data continues to indicate
modest west to northwest flow developing across the region as
upper level ridging builds back across the Rockies through the
middle of the work week. Warmer and drier air moving into the
Rockies will support drier conditions across the area, as low
level moisture mixes out across the region. There still will be
enough moisture, to work with early summer solar heating, to
support isolated to scattered high based showers, and a possible
thunderstorm, mainly over and near the higher terrain each day,
with Thursday expected to have the least coverage of showers.
With the drier and warmer air working into the region,
temperatures are expected to warm back to above seasonal levels
with near record high temperatures in the 90s to low 100s across
the plains, with highs mainly in the 70s and 80s across the
higher terrain.

Current records for June 12th and June 13th at ALS are 89F in
2022 and 90F in 2021, 95F in 2022 and 95F in 2022 at COS, and
104F in 1981 and 102F in 2022 at PUB.

Thursday night-Saturday...Upper level ridging breaks down with
increasing southwest flow aloft across the region ahead of an
eastern Pacific system progged to lift out across the Desert
Southwest and across the Rockies Friday and Saturday. Increasing
uvv and moisture spreading across the Rockies, combined with
surging low level moisture back across the Plains, will bring
chances of storms across the Plains Thursday night, with good
chances of showers and thunderstorms areawide on Friday.
Residual moisture behind the passing system will keep isolated
to scattered showers and storms across the region on Saturday as
well, with the best coverage over the higher terrain.
Temperatures cool down through the period, though will still be
at to slightly above seasonal levels both Friday and Saturday.

Sunday-Monday...Moderate west to southwest flow aloft develops
across the region into early next week, with upper level high
pressure across the southern Rockies and into the southern High
Plains as occasional short waves translate through the stronger
zonal flow in place across the Northern Tier. This will bring
drier and warmer conditions back across the region, along with
breezy conditions, leading to the potential for critical fire
weather conditions through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all
3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. There is a low chance that any
of the sites may see a passing convective shower this
afternoon/evening along with some gusty outflow winds.
Otherwise, wind flow will be diurnally driven.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH