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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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248 FXUS65 KPUB 200908 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 308 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing moisture in the mtns will allow for numerous showers and tstorms today; locally heavy rain likely. - A few storms will push over the plains later today, especially Pikes Peak Region (PPR). - Heat returns today. - Increased coverage and intensity of thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain on Friday. - Above normal temperatures through the weekend with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms. - Excessive heat possible across portions of southern Colorado early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 304 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Currently... An area of rain with embedded thunder was pushing across the greater Pikes Peak region with this activity extending back to the W-SW across the northern San Luis Valley. Low clouds were noted over the far eastern plains. Over the remainder of the plains partly cloudy skies prevailed at 2 pm. Today... Main concern is increasing lower level moisture over the mtns today. Dewpoints in the 40s and 50s are expected to become widespread over the higher terrain today and this will allow for numerous showers and tstorms over the mtns by afternoon. Best threat for locally heavy rain will be the SW slopes of the San Juans as quality llvl moisture will advect in from NM and impinge on the sw slopes of te San Juans. West slopes of the Sangres may also become favored later in the day and the old burn scars will have to be watched carefully during the afternoon. As for the plains, the heat returns and the 50s and 60s that we had yesterday afternoon will be replaced by 80s and 90s across the lower elevations. Best chance of storms over the plains today will be over the lower elevations of the Pikes Peak Region. Storms are not expected to be all that strong and gusty winds will be the main concern. Tonight... With plenty of lower level moisture over the mtns, shower and storms will continue through the night, with the overall best chance of activity remaining over the CONTDVD, especially the SW mtns. Otherwise, storms along the mtns/plains interface and over the plains should end by early to mid evening. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 304 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Friday-Friday night...Upper trough continues to translate across the Rockies through Friday night, with ample moisture and orographic flow likely keeping scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms ongoing over and near the Continental Divide early Friday morning. Increasing uvv and steep lapse rates associated with the passing system will allow for showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage through the day, with storms spreading northeast across the higher terrain and into the I-25 Corridor Friday afternoon and early evening. There could also be a few storms possible further east across the Plains Friday evening associated with the passing systems front pushing south across the plains. Latest models continue to suggest enough cape and shear, especially west of the Front Range, to support a few stronger storms producing marginally severe winds and hail, along with enough subtropical moisture to support locally heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding, especially for area burn scars. Temperatures across southeast Colorado are expected to warm into the 80s to lower 90s through the end of the work week, with temperatures over and near the higher terrain at to slightly cooler than seasonal, with expected increased convection. Saturday-Sunday...Warmer and drier west to northwest flow develops across the region through the upcoming weekend, with upper level ridging building back across the southern Rockies. This will allow for temperatures to warm to above seasonal levels areawide, with enough residual moisture to support isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms, with the best coverage over and near the higher terrain. Monday-Wednesday...Southern Rockies upper level ridging builds into the Central Rockies through early next week, with excessive heat possible as H5 heights approach 595DM and H7 temps approach 20C, leading to highs returning to well above seasonal levels in the mid 90s to around 105F across the southeast Plains. There could be enough moisture to support isolated higher based afternoon showers, mainly over the higher terrain, into early next week. Latest model data does indicate increased chances of showers and storms along with cooler temperatures across eastern Colorado for later next week, as energy topping the ridge across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern High Plains sends moisture back across the eastern Plains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1109 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 KALS...VFR conditions overnight into Thursday morning with mid and high clouds spread across the San Luis Valley. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon with a few possible at the terminal. Briefly reduced CIGS and VIS are expected with any precipitation passes across the terminal. KCOS and KPUB...an area of precipitation to the southwest will shift northeast across both terminals overnight. Light rain and areas of fog will be possible with reduced CIGS and VIS. This precipitation looks to come to an end by Thursday morning, with improving conditions heading into the afternoon hours. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon into the evening. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...MOZLEY