083
FXUS62 KRAH 081626
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1226 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will settle over the region today,
then drift offshore and weaken early Sunday. A disturbance and
approaching cold front will cross the region late Sunday and Sunday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1006 AM Saturday...

Morning satellite imagery and surface analysis reveals high pressure
across eastern TN, with dry weather across the majority of the
eastern CONUS. The front that made its way through NC on Friday is
located off the SE coast and is the focal point for some showers and
storms well offshore, but across NC conditions remain quiet.  With
relatively low dewpoints for early June, early morning
temperatures managed to make it into the mid 50s to lower 60s, but
have already rebounded close to 80 degrees in most spots as of 14Z.

For the rest of today, expect continued dry weather with temps
reaching the mid to upper 80s late this afternoon. Mid/high clouds
from a decaying complex of storms over Missouri are already starting
to make a run at the mountains and there should be a noticeable
increase in high cloud cover late this evening/overnight, but precip
chances through tonight remain at or close to zero. With cloud cover
in place, tonight`s lows will be a few degrees warmer than what we
just experienced with forecast guidance generally in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 243 AM Saturday...

Hotter with isolated thunderstorms possible, especially over
southern NC.


It appears that central NC will remain mostly dry and hotter on
Sunday. Central NC will be in the general thunderstorm category, but
only isolated thunderstorms are expected. The best chance an
isolated thunderstorm will be in the afternoon and early evening as
an upper level disturbance and pre-frontal trough move over the
region. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s NW and 90-95 in
the east and south. It is possible that mid level cloudiness
associated with the disturbance aloft is enough to knock
temperatures back a few degrees from this forecast. It appears that
cloudiness will linger into Sunday night as the winds become more
northerly behind the trough. Lows should fall into the 60s (lower
60s north and upper 60s south).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 204 AM Saturday...

Guidance has been trending drier for the extended, but some
continued uncertainty means we cannot fully rule out chances of
showers/storms in the beginning and latter part of next week.

We will likely start the week with WNW flow at mid-levels, thanks to
a trough extending from the OH valley into the NE US. A The cold
frontal passage from Sun night will settle across the Deep South and
promote lower highs and comfortable humidity levels to start the
work week. Cool high pressure looks to build into the region thru
midweek from the OH valley, favoring highs near to perhaps slightly
below normal in the low to mid 80s Mon/Tue. Some upper 70s are
possible across our northern zones on Tue. Lows should also be
comfortable with mid 50s to low 60s. While the early part of the
week has been trending drier given the aforementioned pattern,
models are still unclear on the track of an embedded shortwave Mon
night/Tue morning. The ECMWF remains strongest and furthest west
than the other guidance, which would favor a better chance of
showers. The pattern is not very supportive overall given a drier
airmass and stable conditions, but have retained low chances of rain
if the strong ECMWF solution verifies.

The latter part of the week would support a slight uptick each day
of the chances of diurnal showers or storms, as well as highs rising
above normal in the upper 80s and lower 90s, with corresponding
increasing humidity levels. Most guidance indicates weak ridging Wed
that transitions to a quasi-zonal flow at mid-levels. At the
surface, a Bermuda high and lee trough setting up would favor a
return to warm southerly flow. Where models disagree is whether a
trough over the Plains to lower MS valley Wed/Thu could interact
with a potential disturbance in the Gulf and increase or storm
chances. Ensemble solutions are mixed on the fetch of southerly flow
from the Gulf and whether any system would stay south or ride up the
SE US late in the week. For now, outside of any influence from any
system, storm chances will remain on the low end, highest on
Thu/Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1226 PM Saturday...

High confidence in VFR weather at all TAF sites through mid day
Sunday. High clouds will thicken later this afternoon into tonight
but cigs will only fall to around 15kft. There will be an increasing
chance of showers on Sunday as a cold front approaches the area but
this won`t occur until after the TAF period.  Light winds generally
less than 5-7 kts through the period.

Outlook: Showers and isolated storms associated with he cold front
could bring intermittent periods of non-VFR weather Sunday night
through early Monday morning. Otherwise, much of the upcoming week
should feature VFR conditions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Leins