371
FXUS62 KRAH 300604
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
204 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing a
reinforcing shot of cooler/drier air to the area for the rest of the
week. High pressure will build in behind the front and remain in
place across the Mid Atlantic through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 925 PM Wednesday...

The front currently crossing the forecast area doesn`t have much of
a temperature difference nor a wind difference, but can primarily be
detected by a dewpoint gradient - RDU`s 9pm dewpoint was 50 degrees
while Rocky Mount`s was 65. As expected, all isolated showers that
developed were north or east of the forecast area, and it appears
that the rest of the night will remain dry. Although there are
currently a good amount of mid level clouds across the state, skies
should become mostly clear after midnight. Overnight lows will be a
couple degrees cooler than last night, with nearly all locations in
the 50s and some isolated low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 237 PM Wednesday...

Troughing will remain in place on Thursday. Much like today, a weak
shortwave aloft will rotate through the flow, over the mountains,
and into the Piedmont. However, Thursday`s wave will be displaced
much farther south and there are about 15-20/100 ensemble members
suggesting precip across portions of the northern Coastal Plain late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening. There will be very little to no
instability available by the time the wave arrives late in the day
so anything that develops should have a very limited thunder threat.
Similarly, given dry air in place across the area, QPF will be
limited to a few hundredths of an inch or less.

Temps Thursday will be a few degrees lower than today - highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Friday morning lows still in the low to mid
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

A series of northern stream lows will track eastward through Canada
through the middle of next week, with a number of s/w disturbances
rotating about the lows potentially impacting the weather across the
mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. The sub-tropical ridge will progress
slowly eastward through the area Sat/Sat night as a s/w trough move
eastward through the MS Valley. This s/w will then continue
generally eastward across the Appalachians and through the mid-
Atlantic Sun/Mon, however the timing and track differ between the
medium-range guidance. Another s/w will follow behind it but,
similar to the first s/w, the model differences continue wrt timing
and track. A northern stream s/w ejecting eastward from a low over
western Canada will deepen as it moves along the US/Canada border
Tue/Wed, closing off over then tracking eastward through the Great
Lakes Wed/Wed night. At the surface, cool high pressure move slowly
esewd through the Carolinas Sat/Sat night. The high will move ese to
off the Carolina/Southeast US coast on Sun, where it should sit
through Mon then slowly drift eastward Tue/Wed. A warm front should
lift through the area Sun night/Mon, with southerly return flow once
again advecting warm, moist air into the area through early next
week. Surface flow should become increasingly swly as the high
shifts further offshore, with more of a Gulf influence by mid-week.
A bit of a low confidence precipitation forecast from Sun through
Wed given the uncertainty wrt the shortwaves. For now, expect
largely dry weather through Sun, with chances for precipitation
returning for Sun night through Wed. Temperatures should be near to
slightly below normal through Sun, then return to near/above normal
and moderate through mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 AM Thursday...

There is high confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period
ending at 06z Friday. An upper level disturbance moving through the
area during the evening and overnight hours may bring a passing
shower INVOF RWI after midnight. However, given the limited moisture
little to no impacts are expected. Otherwise, light N-NWLY winds are
expected behind the exiting cold front.

Outlook: Dry VFR weather likely through Saturday with high pressure
overhead/offshore. As the high moves offshore Sunday, return flow
will advect moisture into the area with stratus/non-VFR weather
possible Sunday and Monday. Chances for rain will also return Sunday
through early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Leins
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL/Leins