737
FXUS65 KREV 161956
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1256 PM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Gusty winds with critical fire weather and hazardous boating
  conditions continue into this evening. Gusty north winds will
  persist for areas south of Highway 50 Monday.

* Much cooler conditions Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday morning lows
  will dip below freezing in Sierra valleys and near freezing for
  colder western NV valleys.

* Warming trend for the second half of the week. Daytime highs for
  lower elevations will return to the 90s to around 100 by next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Winds this evening and Monday...
Winds are starting to increase across the area ahead of a weather
system pushing into Pacific Northwest that will track across
northern Nevada this evening and tonight. Gusts of 30-40 mph will
bring impacts to boating on area lakes as well as critical fire
weather conditions. Be fire aware for your afternoon and evening
Father`s Day festivities. Winds will drop off a bit after 10-11
pm, but will shift to the north-northwest with gusts to 30-35 mph
returning during overnight and early Monday morning as a dry cold
front pushes through northern NV. Strongest winds Monday will
impact southern Mono, Lyon and Mineral Counties. Winds will
diminish Monday evening.

Chilly Monday and Tuesday...
After the weather system passes, unusually cool air moves into
the Sierra and western NV. Overnight lows will be the larger
impact with Sierra valleys dropping below freezing Monday and
Tuesday mornings. Winds should prevent temperatures from dropping
into the 30s Monday AM for western NV, but light winds Tuesday AM
will allow lows to fall into the 30s and perhaps below freezing
outside of urban areas. Afternoon highs will be a nice break from
the summer heat with 60s and 70s.

Heating up late in the week...
Simulations (75% of the ensemble membership) continue to favor
hot conditions and potential for record level heat (30% chance at
RNO) for next weekend. With the building heat and surface
instability, there is only 10% chance of thunder due to lack of
increasing moisture. The other 25% of the simulations push a
trough into the west coast which could keep conditions cooler and
perhaps breezy with fire weather concerns. Brong

&&

.AVIATION...

A dry weather system will pass through northern NV this evening
and tonight with gusts 30-35 kts in the lower elevations and near
50 kts over Sierra Ridges. Mountain waves will lead to bumpy
departures/arrivals through tonight. Winds shift to the northwest
and north overnight Sunday and early Monday with gusts 25-30 kts
persisting into Monday.

Light winds and VFR conditions Tuesday-Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag Conditions with gusty winds of 30-40 mph through 11 pm
this evening as a dry weather system moves through northern
Nevada. Cooler air may help humidity rise up near 30% this evening
and tonight mitigate the critical conditions. Winds will also
shift to the north and northwest tonight with gusts of 30-35 mph
persisting through Monday.

Monday`s dry north-northwest winds are projected to be strongest
in portions of southern Mono County, southern Lyon County, and
Mineral County. Localized critical conditions as possible where
finer fuels have cured. Brong

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ420-423-429.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ001-003-004.

CA...&&

$$