067
FXUS65 KREV 210843
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
143 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* A dry weather pattern with mainly light winds prevails through
  early next week, with a possible increase in winds by midweek.

* Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages through next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Continuing today will be more of the same of what we saw yesterday:
warm temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and light winds. Daily high
temperatures will stay in the low 80`s in lower valleys and low 70`s
in the Sierra through at least the middle next week. One thing
that`s changed since the last forecast update is the chance for
showers along the Sierra crest in Mono county this afternoon. While
NBM guidance doesn`t have much in the way of PoPs, the downscaled
NAM is showing a few possible showers along the highest peaks in the
Sierra south of Tahoe. It`s not uncommon that we get these pop-up
storms along the Sierra in the summer/early fall. A combination of
northerly upslope flow, daytime surface heating, and upper-level
dynamics will be seen this afternoon to produce at least a few
towering cumulus. We`re going to keep PoPs low (<10%), but non-zero,
due to the overwhelming majority of models showing no signs of
showers.

The GFS and EC are still showing a brief Rex Block off the West
Coast on Tuesday. High pressure will be over our region at first
with the low pressure over SoCal, then as the Block breaks down, the
high pushes off east and a shortwave trough brushes by northern
Nevada on Wednesday. Not a huge concern as of right now other than
possible gusty winds, but something we`ll monitor as we get closer
to Wednesday. From Wednesday onward ensembles have the west under a
zonal flow, so as of now no storms or showers are expected through
next weekend.

-Justin

&&

.AVIATION...

Patchy fog will likely return to KTRK this morning, dissipating
around 15-16Z. Otherwise, light winds, mostly sunny skies, and VFR
conditions will prevail through the weekend.

-Justin

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$