Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
322 FXUS65 KREV 192030 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 130 PM PDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warming trend brings well above-average temperatures to the region through the weekend. Outside of low chances for afternoon showers today and Thursday, conditions are expected to remain dry through the weekend. Increased west-southwesterly breezes return this weekend, with potential to create a few hours of critical fire weather conditions. Slight cooling is expected next week, but highs remain above average. && .DISCUSSION... A troughing pattern over the western US slowly breaks down into this weekend, with high pressure filling in through the weekend. Heating reaches its peak on Saturday, with high temperatures across the region climbing near or into triple digits for western Nevada valleys and mid-to-upper 80s for most Sierra communities. Cumulus buildups are evident on latest satellite imagery, mainly along the high Sierra in Mono and Alpine counties this afternoon. Given light, diffluent flow aloft and strengthening surface heating, instability is increasing across the region. In conjunction with PWATs around 0.40", this modest instability may be enough to pop a few showers across the Eastern Sierra this afternoon, with a 10% chance. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow. Otherwise, expect dry conditions to prevail across the region with generally light winds. Skies remain mostly clear outside of some high clouds and haze from elevated smoke originating from the Sites Fire in Colusa County, CA. Our afternoon westerly Zephyr wind returns on Saturday as pressure gradients tighten across the Sierra Front. Winds further increase on Sunday as a shortwave trough digging into the Pacific Northwest introduces increased southwesterly flow across our region, with widespread gusts to 30-35 mph possible. As conditions remain extremely dry across the region, with valley minimum RH in the single digits to low teens, these conditions raise increased concerns for fire weather on Sunday. A good amount of spread still exists in the ensembles as we head into early next week, with the aforementioned shortwave trough attempting to flatten the ridge across the western US. 20% of ensemble clusters show a a Four Corners High type pattern developing by Tuesday, though confidence remains low on how this pattern may impact our region. Regardless, temperatures look to remain above average with afternoon westerly Zephyr winds continuing through at least mid-next week. Whitlam && .AVIATION... VFR conditions and light winds continue. Skies remain mostly clear outside of some cumulus buildups along the high terrain of the Sierra as well as a few passing high level clouds. There is a 5-10% chance for a stray shower to impact KMMH between 22-02z. Whitlam && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$