Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
843 FXUS65 KREV 082117 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 217 PM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The early season heat will decrease through Monday before rebounding in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase this weekend, with best chances near the Oregon border and for areas south of US-50. Otherwise, near- record or perhaps record breaking temperatures are expected to develop again through the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Record-to-near record temperatures certainly heated us up over the past few days, but an upper-level trough moving into the region this weekend will cool us down like we need it to. A shield of high clouds began to stream into the region earlier today, leading to a decrease in surface heating this afternoon. This cooling trend will continue into Sunday, with temperatures bottoming out in the low 90s across western Nevada and upper 70s for Sierra communities. While this will technically be the coolest day of the week, these temperatures are still more reminiscent of those we`d see in the middle of summer. With these warm temperatures, expect typical afternoon Zephyr winds each afternoon with gusts 20-25 mph. Showers and thunderstorms are already developing across the Eastern Sierra this afternoon. Greatest coverage through early evening is expected south of US-50 and east of US-95 in western Nevada. Main threats from storms in the aforementioned areas include gusty and erratic outflow winds to 30-40 mph, small hail, and frequent lightning. Thunderstorms are also possible across the Lassen County convergence zone into the Surprise Valley and far northwestern Nevada. Model soundings indicate any cells that develop here have notable chances to generate severe wind gusts in excess of 58 mph given DCAPE values near 1400-1500 J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms over these areas may continue into the evening and overnight hours as the shortwave entering the region provides additional forcing. Similar chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected on Sunday for the aforementioned areas. The shortwave trough moving into the region is expected to cut off into a closed low off the coast of southern California by Monday. This will allow high pressure to redevelop across the western US, triggering another warm up through the work week. Temperatures will once again soar to near-record territory as highs reach magnitudes around 15 degrees above average. Precipitation chances remain low through this period. Whitlam && .AVIATION... * Density altitude concerns will remain through this weekend as high temperatures remain around 10 degrees above average. Typical afternoon westerly winds prevail for all regional terminals, with gusts generally 15-25 kts. * High clouds will remain over the area through the weekend as an upper low passes over the region. Expect cumulus buildups across the Basin & Range, Eastern Sierra, and far northern Lassen/Washoe counties. These areas will also see a 25-30% chance for showers and thunderstorms, with main threats being gusty and erratic outflow winds, small hail, and lightning. Whitlam && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$