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598
FXUS65 KREV 122221
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
221 PM PST Mon Nov 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will lead to dry and stagnant conditions through the
week. Localized degradation of air quality is possible under valley
inversions. A pattern change next week may open the door for a
couple of weak systems but major precipitation is unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure remains in charge for yet another week for generally
tranquil conditions. The ridge will bring a gradual warm up through
mid-week as the regional airmass modifies following the last cold
front. Fairly steady temperatures (highs slightly above average)
will take hold Wednesday through at least Saturday under the ridge
of high pressure, with winds remaining generally light.

The light winds will lead to a stagnant air mass with valley
inversions and possible decreases in air quality for urban areas.
Also, the inversions will mean similar afternoon temperatures for
the lower valleys and Sierra valleys. As far as the Camp Fire smoke,
winds aloft do go light westerly by Wednesday. However, lower level
flow remains easterly with surface high pressure in the Great
Basin so it looks like any smoke would just form a layer above
valleys if it moves into eastern California and western Nevada.

By Sunday, the last couple runs of the GFS and the 00Z run of the
ECMWF show a weak and shallow backdoor cold front pushing in from
the north and east as an elongated trough axis moves over eastern
Nevada and points eastward. If this occurs, it would serve to bring
a very modest cool down on the order of a few degrees for valleys
with little change at ridge-level due to the shallowness of the
front. However, the 12Z ECMWF and some ensemble members send the
upper wave much farther east so the forecast currently calls for
little temperature change for next Sunday/Monday. -Snyder

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR with mainly light terminal winds this week for northeast CA,
the northern Sierra, and western NV as high pressure remains in
place. Some residual east winds of 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30
kts will be present over the Sierra crest through Tuesday morning.
Per the lack of turbulence PIREPs, the east winds appear to be
causing little in the way of chop over the Sierra.

A series of disturbances flatten the upper ridge and go into the
Pacific Northwest by mid-week, with northeast California and
western Nevada on the far southern periphery. This will bring
periodic increases in mid to high clouds but no significant
turbulence or restrictions to ceilings/visibilities. -Snyder

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

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