087
FXUS65 KREV 062100
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
200 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Hot conditions with showers and thunderstorms are expected through
the afternoon with a few showers lingering in western Nevada
tonight. Well above normal temperatures will persist over the
weekend and into next week, along with low chances of showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon. &&

.DISCUSSION...

Today will be one of the hottest days, if not the hottest day, as
temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s for Sierra communities
and mid 90s to 100F for western Nevada valleys. Overnight lows for
western Nevada locales will only fall into mid to upper 60s tonight,
providing minimal relief from the daytime heat. A Heat Advisory
remains in effect for western Nevada until 8 PM as moderate to
locally major heat risk continues. Be sure to take your heat safety
precautions!

Meanwhile, isolated thunderstorms have developed in N Washoe County
and S Lyon County in the last 3 hours ahead of an approaching upper
shortwave. Elsewhere, cumulus is maturing along the higher terrain
of western Nevada into Mono County where MUCAPE values of 250-500
J/kg reside. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and early evening, especially south of I-80 and west of US-
95 in the next immediate hours where a cumulus field continues to
display vertical development. Showers and storms that develop here
will move further east into the Basin and Range late this afternoon
and early evening before this initial wave of convection tapers off.
The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow winds,
small hail, and occasional cloud-to-ground lightning. Latest Hi-Res
and CAM guidance suggest reinvigorated showers and perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm or two overnight in Pershing and Churchill
County that lingers until around sunrise.

Friday and the weekend feature more hot conditions and low chances
(15-30%) of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Eastern Pacific
troughing will allow for a few degrees of cooling Friday and over
the weekend, which will alleviate the heat risk somewhat but
temperatures will remain well above average. Blended guidance
continues to advertise increased west to northwest breezes each
afternoon Friday and over the weekend, which may yield brief periods
of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Slow
warming is favored for the first half of next week, bringing
temperatures back into the upper 90s for western Nevada valleys.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

The main weather concerns today will be continued density altitude
issues with the ongoing heat episode and the development of showers
and thunderstorms through the remainder of the day. Convection is
favored to initiate just east of the Sierra Front terminals and
will drift northeastward, so much of the activity will likely stay
east of the primary TAF sites. The best potential for VCTS and
subsequent impacts will be in the immediate 2-3 hours for
KRNO/KCXP/KMEV before showers and storms move eastward/weaken in
the evening.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ001-003-005.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday NVZ004.

CA...None.

&&

$$