313
FXUS65 KREV 060925
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
225 AM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Hot weather with chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms
continue in store for the region. Afternoon temperatures will be
10-20 degrees above average with a moderate to locally major heat
risk over the next couple of days. Any afternoon storm will be
capable of producing gusty winds and periods of heavy rain through
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper level ridge remains in the area which will continue the
first heat wave of the season. Afternoon temperatures will
continue to be 10-20 degrees above normal through Saturday.
Therefore, expect daytime highs in the mid-upper 90s NV valleys,
mid 80s to lower 90s northeast CA, and 80s for Sierra communities.
We still have a decent chance of reaching 100F degrees in
multiple locations in western NV valleys today (20-40%, higher in
eastern Churchill Co). However, the probability of exceeding 100F
comes down for the weekend with generally a 10-20% for the lowest
NV valleys in the basin. The approach of a weak trough to the
region on Sunday will bring some relief, but the drop in
temperatures will be minor as we remain generally 5-10 degrees
above normal for June. The upper ridge is reestablished around
Tuesday and Wednesday next week although there is some divergence
among models. The trend appears to indicate warmer temperatures
per the NBM guidance, even with the spread of likely temperatures.
Anyway, it looks like summer time weather is here to stay for the
foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, we continue to have afternoon showers and thunderstorms
each day under the "dirty ridge." This ridge will help keep
convection from reaching severe thresholds, but we are still
expecting gusty winds up to 40 mph and periods of heavy rain. The
best chances for convection will be today and tomorrow mainly over
the Eastern Sierra and extending to the northeast into the basin
(Mineral/Churchill/Pershing Co) with a 20-40%. However, most of
the area has a 10-20% chance of storms. So, don`t be surprised if
you see a storm near you. Storm chances tomorrow decrease about
10% areawide as the moisture in the area starts to be pushed out
east as the shortwave trough gets closer to us.

A drier airmass beyond Saturday appears to bring down the
possibility of showers and thunderstorms to below 10%. However,
seeing how models have been behaving this week, I would not rule
out the development of storms each afternoon into mid-week next
week, especially for the Sierra and vicinity.

-Crespo

&&

.AVIATION...

Mostly VFR conditions expected through tomorrow afternoon. Periods
of MVFR conditions are possible with a 10-30% chance of SHRA/-TSRA
due to VIS reductions between 20-4Z. Some mountain obscurations
are possible too mainly in the Sierra. Winds will be light and VRB
in the morning and overnight, then become generally from the west
with speeds 5-15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts between 20-4Z. Gusty
and erratic winds are likely near -TSRA. Density altitude concerns
persist into the weekend.

-Crespo

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ001-003-005.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday NVZ004.

CA...None.
&&

$$