761
FXUS65 KREV 051923
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1223 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Well above normal temperatures with low chances of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms are expected through the forecast period. A
moderate to locally major heat risk is expected for western Nevada
Thursday and Friday. Be sure to take your heat safety precautions
this week and weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The first heat event of the year is underway as temperatures are
running 5 to 15 degrees warmer compared to this time yesterday.
Daytime highs will reach the mid 80s for Sierra communities and mid-
upper 90s for western Nevada valleys. Meanwhile, intense surface
heating coupled with ample moisture aloft may prove sufficient in
overcoming large scale subsidence to produce a few showers and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. Latest HREF
guidance favors a couple of areas for showers and storms today:
Portions of Lassen County and the eastern Sierra from the Tahoe
Basin southward. The former area features better moisture quality
but less instability, yielding a 10-20% chance this afternoon. The
latter area features a bit less moisture but more instability with
better differential heating in the higher terrain, resulting in a
broader swath of 10-20% odds with locally greater chances of 20-40%.

The remainder of the week and weekend will be hot, especially
Thursday and Friday when highs in lower western Nevada valleys flirt
with the 100F mark. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s for urban
areas of western Nevada (i.e. Reno, Sparks, Fallon, Hawthorne) will
provide little to no relief from the daytime heat on Thursday and
Friday, inducing a moderate to locally major heat risk. While a few
degrees of cooling is expected this weekend, it will remain quite
hot with highs in the 80s and 90s. Be sure to drink plenty of water
and limit time out in the sun!

Daily chances (10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms will stick
around into early next week amid continued intense heating. Thursday
stands out as the best day in terms of likelihood and coverage for
the two areas mentioned earlier as well as parts of the Basin and
Range. Increased west breezes coupled with well above normal
temperatures and low daytime humidities may yield periods of
elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions Friday and
Saturday afternoon for portions of western Nevada. Ensembles favor
a slow warming trend for the first half of next week, bringing
highs back into the mid- upper 80s and upper 90s for the Sierra
and western Nevada valleys, respectively.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

The primary weather concerns through the remainder of the week will
feature well above normal temperatures and subsequent density
altitude concerns and low chances (10-30%) of showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon. There is also the potential for patchy
fog at KTRK between 10-15Z Thursday morning given calm winds and low
dewpoint depressions at the surface. Otherwise, widespread VFR
conditions with typical afternoon breezes will prevail this week
and into the weekend.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Thursday NVZ001-003-005.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday NVZ004.

CA...None.
&&

$$