829
FXUS61 KRLX 230528
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
128 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms into Thursday. Rain
chances through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 500 PM Wednesday...

Did increase pops across parts of SE Ohio and Northern WV later
this evening, as there is the potential for storms to refire
along the cold frontal boundary to our west this
afternoon/evening and potentially survive into our CWA.
Otherwise, the previous forecast was mainly on track.

As of 137 PM Wednesday...

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop over southeast Ohio and
northeast Kentucky this afternoon. A slight risk of severe
weather remains in place from central WV to points north and
west with the main threats being damaging wind gusts and hail.
In this area, pockets of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 kts of
0-6km bulk shear will support the development of a few stronger
storms. The overall best threat for severe weather today still
appears to be west of our region, across central Ohio and
central Kentucky, where more shear and instability will be
available.

There is the potential for another round of thunderstorms
overnight and into Thursday morning as a shortwave approaches
from the southwest. Some uncertainty exists regarding the
strength of these storms, and that will depend on how much
energy is dampened by this afternoon`s convective activity. Some
models show any convection weakening to just showers as they
approach from the west by 03-06Z.

There will be another threat for stronger thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon with a marginal risk currently forecast by SPC. The
threat level appears to be lower than today with lower
instability and shear. The main threats appear to be wind and
hail once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...

The front will stall over the area Thursday night into Friday,
then gradually lift back north as a warm front on Friday as a
shortwave moves along the front Friday afternoon into Saturday.
Models continue to struggle with the strength of the short
wave and how far north things get, but for now we bring low-end
likely POPs into the area Friday night.

A weak cold front will move into the area on Saturday or
Saturday night. With the parent low in southern Canada, only a
modest push of cold air is expected, but we should see a bit of
an enhancement again in storm chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

Models show a system lifting from the midwest on Sunday into
the Great Lakes region on Monday. This will push a warm front
across the area on Sunday, followed by a cold front on Monday.
With systems nearly every day from later today into Monday, we
are getting increasingly concerned with the threat for flash
flooding to occur for Sunday and Monday. This will be followed
by an upper level wave on Tuesday in the significantly cooler
air. Models seem to have come into much better agreement for the
Sunday/Monday system, but still have differences during the
Tues/Wed time period. They generally agree on some upper-level
shortwave moving across, but differ a good deal on the timing
and amplitude, and thus the rain chances, so only Chance POPs
are in place to end the period for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 AM Thursday...

Visible satellite and radar show a band of showers moving
northeast across the area along the Ohio River with another band
just to our east along the Greenbrier River Valley, but this set
looks to stay just outside our area. Some lightning was
previously being picked up in these, but most of the convection
and looks to be dying off at this point. That said VCTS was
taken out of most sites this cycle.

Mainly VFR to start, even with these showers around. Periods of
showers will be possible as a cold front stalls at our doorstep
in Ohio this morning. MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty winds are
likely within any showers. However, outside of any precipitation,
fog and low stratus will likely form this morning. Sites that
saw the most precipitation today will see more restrictions and
coverage. MVFR/IFR possible with with fog/low stratus.

There will likely be a brief period of improvement to VFR for
much of the area later this morning, but another round of
showers and storms will move from west to east through the area
between ~15-18Z, MVFR and IFR restrictions possible in vicinity
of storms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage, timing and intensity of fog/low
stratus could vary from the forecast. Timing and location of
storms today may vary.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 05/23/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    L    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers and storms through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL/JMC
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...LTC