486
FXUS61 KRLX 251617
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1217 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front arrives this evening, and stalls across our north through
Sunday. This will keep showers and storms through Memorial Day weekend.
Damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy downpours will be possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1031 AM Saturday...

Freshened up temperatures this morning, running a few degrees
cooler than anticipated, and sky conditions to reflect passing
cirrus as far east as the mountains. Awaiting more hi-res 12Z
guidance to aid in preparing this afternoon`s forecast package
that will encompass the end of the weekend severe weather
concern.

As of 208 AM Saturday...

Low level south to southwest flow develops ahead of an approaching
cold front today. Moisture advection and afternoon heating will
destabilize the atmosphere with surface CAPE values reaching 3500
J/Kg under a low to none shear. Local soundings show a dry column
within a tall skinny CAPE signature. With PWATs about 1.5 inches,
this environment could lead to isolated to scattered slow-moving
showers and thunderstorms some with heavy rain and associated
localized water issues. WPC has most of the area under a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall. In addition, SPC has a marginal risk
for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and
evening. The main threat will be strong gusty winds and large hail.
Allowed chance PoPs for afternoon convection, tapering off by
midnight.

The aforementioned cold front arrives to the Middle Ohio valley this
evening, stalling across our northern sections tonight into Sunday
morning. Upper level flow becomes diffluent with no noticeable
shortwaves passing tonight. However, cannot ruled out
convection activity along the stationary front tonight, but the
lack of forcing and heating should keep confidence low. Abundant
low level moisture, calm flow and breaks in the sky will allow
for radiational cooling and associated dense fog mainly along
river valleys late tonight into Sunday morning.

Under plenty of sunshine, afternoon temperatures warm up into the
mid-80s across the lowlands and the 70s for the higher terrain. Lows
tonight will generally be in the low to mid 60s lowlands, ranging
into the mid 50s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1150 AM Saturday...

Showers and thunderstorms remain likely Sunday night and into Monday
morning with waves of shortwave energy approaching from the west.
The strength and timing of any thunderstorms overnight still remains
questionable. Most models show storms weakening as they approach
West Virginia from the west, likely due to a lack of instability.
Some thunderstorms may be capable of bringing damaging winds and
hail, particularly across northeast Kentucky and far southern Ohio,
where instability will be a little more favorable. Severe potential
is more questionable across West Virgina. Nonetheless, the
atmosphere will still have plenty of moisture with PWAT values
likely to be anywhere from 1.25-1.75 inches late Sunday night and
into Monday morning. Therefore, we are concerned about the threat of
flooding, especially in training showers/thunderstorms and locations
where the ground has been saturated from previous activity. The
Weather Prediction Center places much of the region in a slight risk
of excessive rainfall through 12Z Monday morning, which increases
our concern for potential high water issues.

A cold front will sweep through from the west Monday afternoon.
Ahead of the front will be scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Therefore, the potential for flooding will continue into Monday. The
Memorial Day holiday shouldn`t be a complete washout, but it will be
a good idea to keep an eye to the sky and stay up to date with the
latest forecast. Mid-level drier air will funnel in from the west
behind the cold front Monday evening, which should help curb the
flooding threat.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Tuesday as
an upper-level low spins over the Northeast. The flooding threat for
Tuesday and Wednesday looks low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1150 AM Saturday...

Showers will remain in the forecast Wednesday, but drier weather
should build into the area from Thursday onward as high pressure
expands into the middle Ohio Valley. Temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will be much cooler than what we have seen recently. Highs
will only be in the upper 60s in the mountains to the 70s in the
lowlands. Temperatures should gradually warm back into the 80s again
by next weekend as high pressure slides to the east and a southerly
flow returns.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Saturday...

Afternoon cumulus field has sprouted across parts of the
forecast area at the time of writing, with the bulk of radar
activity still outside of our airfields. Mid-level flow will
direct showers and storms that attempt to form today to the
northeast, so it will require development to the southwest of a
TAF site in order for rain and/or thunder to be observed. This
remains fairly driven by daytime heating today, so anything that
does form will quickly fade off after sunset. Will handle the
forecast with VCTS for now with note of potential future AMDs to
include tempo groups for brief vsby drops in the event a storm
moves overhead.

For tonight, there is a strong signal on forecast soundings for
fog development early Sunday morning. Light flow through the
profile, coupled with increasing low level moisture, will
generate widespread fog, locally dense in some spots, for the
early morning timeframe. Outside of lower confidence at BKW,
opted to carry IFR or worse at all other sites. Fog gradually
lifts and erodes after daybreak.

Another round of showers and storms will be present on Sunday as
an advancing cold front drifts closer to the area. There will be
a stronger emphasis on severe weather for the afternoon and
evening, so VCTS will be most likely included in future TAF
issuances to highlight this potential. Light winds prevail
through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset timing of fog and its intensity may
vary for late tonight into Sunday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers and storms through early next
week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MEK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK