Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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067 FXUS61 KRLX 020706 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 306 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will bring rain showers today. Warmer with a brief dry spell for most on Monday and possibly, before unsettled weather returns by mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 235 AM Sunday... A weak low pressure will bring rain showers to the area today. Timing and coverage will be largely tied to two mid-level short wave troughs, one crossing early this morning already bring showers across the middle Ohio Valley, and the other crossing this afternoon in concert with diurnal heating. Diurnal heating will be limited, keeping CAPE narrow. Together with modest shear, any thunderstorms that occur this afternoon and evening are not expected to be severe, and the best chance for a thunderstorm at all is across southern portions of the area. While PW values increase to around 1.5 inches this morning on a 40 kt h850 theta e feed, the feed weakens today, and weak forcing will limit the amount of moisture we will be able to squeeze out despite the efficient warm rain process. Nonetheless, locally heavy downpours are possible. With flow limited to 5 to n10 kts through the mid levels, stratus and areas of post-rain fog are likely to settle in overnight tonight. The rather cloudy regime will coral temperatures with a 15 degree bracket this period, inside the normals for this time of year, below normal highs today and above normal lows tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday... With a weak surface high and upper level ridging the area will likely endure some diurnal shower and storm activity, but it will likely be isolated in nature. Temperatures will be slightly above normal and the likely activity will be mostly confined to the mountains due to the elevated heat effect, but cannot rule out a storm elsewhere. Tuesday will be almost a mirror image of Monday with weak surface high pressure along with weak upper level ridging. A disturbance will be at our doorstep to the west which will try and interact with our area, but may have trouble with that upper level ridging in the way. Diurnal activity cannot be ruled out as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80`s, even low 90`s in some spots. This will provide plenty of instability to support diurnal activity which could be isolated to scattered in nature. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday... By Wednesday, a cold front will approach the area associated with a low over the Great Lakes. Models are now in agreement on the location of this aforementioned potent low which will ride southeast toward the area. This will slowly push out the cold front by Thursday morning and then provide another front from wrap around flow for frontal passage on Friday morning. One of the models (EURO) was not so sure about this solution, but felt confident to add more POPs from central guidance during frontal passage since all of the long range models are in sync with the lows location and the frontal boundary. This synoptic setup will promote diurnal activity on a daily basis until the system kicks out after the weekend. Went with a blended model for the rest of the period to adjust for the lack of confidence from the EURO which is not letting the low as far south as the other models. This equated to diurnal chances for showers and storms for the weekend. Temperatures will be on a slow decline finishing this period off slightly below seasonable on Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 235 AM Sunday... A low pressure system will bring rain showers at times today, but the most impactful flight restrictions will not come until overnight tonight, when lowering stratocumulus and mist will lower ceiling and visibility to MVFR near or just after the end of the TAF period, 06Z Monday, with IFR ceiling and visibility in stratus and fog likely thereafter. MVFR stratocu is also forecast at times along the Ohio River, HTS and PKB, today and across the north, CKB and EKN, later this afternoon through tonight. A thunderstorm is possible this afternoon and evening, mainly south. Brief MVFR is possible within heavier showers today, while brief IFR is possible within any thunderstorm. light and variable to calm surface flow early this morning will become light, mainly south today, and then light and variable to calm again tonight. Moderate southwest flow aloft early this morning will become light southwest today. As such, a brief gust up to to 20 kts cannot be ruled out early this morning, as showers encroach from the west on top of an initially rather dry lower atmosphere. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR VSBY restrictions are possible within heavier showers today, while brief IFR VSBY restrictions are possible within any thunderstorms. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 06/02/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible in post-rain stratus and fog overnight tonight and early Monday morning. Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms at times Wednesday into Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...TRM