161
FXUS61 KRLX 240713
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
313 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quasi-stationary front lifts north of the area today. Shortwave
grazes our area from the south late today/early Saturday. Another
round of showers/t-storms likely Sunday. Remaining unsettled Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 311 AM Friday...

Low clouds and areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms will exit
east of the Appalachians, as a mid-level shortwave exits early this
morning.

A weak mid level ridge develops to our west, while at the surface, a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary remains oriented west to east
across northern WV. This mid level feature brings dry air aloft
today, as noticed in local soundings. However, a hot, humid and
unstable airmass remains at the surface under a high CAPE; low deep
layered shear environment. Skinny tall soundings will allow for few
showers or pulse storms to develop and produce localized heavy
downpours during the afternoon and evening hours. Convection will be
more likely along the frontal boundary to our north, and should
diminish in intensity and coverage by sunset. Therefore, expect dry
weather for most of the morning and early afternoon hours, keeping
low chance PoPs during the afternoon as the potential for convection
exists across the entire area. Severe thunderstorms are not expected
at this time. SPC kept the area under general thunderstorms.
However, WPC kept a marginal area for excessive rainfall across
southern WV and southwest VA through tonight.

A lull in precipitation will be possible from sunset until the next
batch of convection ahead of an approaching cold front late tonight
into early Saturday morning.

Plenty of sunshine can be expected for the most part today, allowing
above normal high temperatures to reach the mid 80s across the
lowlands, ranging into the upper 60s higher elevations. Above normal
Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s lowlands, ranging into
the mid 50s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1214 PM Thursday...

The unsettled weather pattern will continue into the holiday weekend
with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. A mid-level
shortwave trough will be exiting southern portions of WV and
southwest VA Saturday morning, and this can create showers and
isolated t-storms over these areas through about midday. Any
thunderstorms Saturday morning will likely be non-severe. A period
of dry weather is anticipated Saturday afternoon, but a few isolated
pop-up storms cannot be ruled out. Again, severe weather is not
anticipated Saturday due to a lack of 0-6 km shear (only expected to
be 15-25 kts). Any downpours that repeatedly move over the same
areas may lead to localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1214 PM Thursday...

The severe weather potential may be a bit higher on Sunday, but
models are still not in very good agreement with the overall setup.
It appears that a mid-level shortwave will propagate along a slow-
moving frontal boundary across central West Virginia and southeast
Ohio by Sunday afternoon, creating afternoon and evening
thunderstorm chances. Models are in pretty good agreement that the
best severe weather parameters will be west of our County Warning
Area, across central and western Kentucky. Some models bring
favorable severe weather parameters into portions of northeast
Kentucky, southern Ohio and western West Virginia Sunday afternoon
and evening. SPC currently has far western portions of our area in a
15% risk of severe weather for Day 4, which corresponds to a Slight
Risk. Sunday`s environment will be very saturated with models
showing PWAT values anywhere from 1.5-1.8 inches across the region.
Because of this, we are concerned about potential for flooding,
especially given the saturated ground from our unsettled pattern.

A large 500-mb trough with its associated surface low pressure and
cold front will track eastward across the Great Lakes Monday. This
will provide another push for showers and thunderstorms across the
region. Again, given the recent unsettled pattern, we will remain on
alert for potential flooding issues. Mid-level drier air will filter
back into the region from the west behind the cold front late Monday
afternoon. Given this information, downpours probably won`t be as
potent behind the cold front.

Lingering showers will remain possible Tuesday with energy still
spinning around the upper-level trough. It appears that we will
finally see a respite from the wet and unsettled weather by the
middle of next week with at least a couple of days of drier weather
for most.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 146 AM Friday...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to develop
along a quasi stationary frontal boundary oriented west to east
across central CWA. This activity will affect CRW, HTS and BKW
with MVFR/IFR conditions early during the TAF period, and then
move northeast to affect CKB and EKN through 12Z. Low stratus
may develop behind these showers to keep MVFR ceilings through
the morning hours.

After 12Z, expect low stratus to dissipate as drier airmass
filters in aloft allowing for plenty of sunshine. However, the
atmosphere will remain unsettled allowing convection to develop
during the afternoon and evening hours. Brief MVFR/IFR
conditions can be expected under heavier afternoon showers or
storms.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium on stratus tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorms may miss any terminal
directly by still be in the vicinity.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 05/24/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    L    L    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    L    H    L    M    M    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    M    H    M    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers and storms through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ