Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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036 FXUS61 KRLX 101318 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 918 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front today with scattered showers. Mainly dry through the work week with building heat. Chance for showers and isolated storms on Friday with a weak cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 915 AM Monday... Updated hourly temperature and max temperature grids this morning as we are warming much faster than previously predicted. Also, updated pop forecast to add a mention to southern zones this afternoon based on latest model output. As of 600 AM Monday... No changes needed at this time. Some patchy fog is noted across the southern coalfields this morning. As of 130 AM Monday... Mainly clear skies this morning give way to increasing cloudiness ahead of an upper level shortwave and associated cold front/surface trough slated to move through the region late this afternoon into this evening. Given modest, but relatively deep conditional instability, scattered showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this feature late this afternoon into the evening hours. Shear will be rather meager, around 20KTS 0-6km, so not expecting anything well organized with this activity. Light flow, clearing skies, and dew point values in the low 50s overnight should yield at least some patchy valley fog across the region heading into daybreak Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 AM Monday... Surface high pressure will be the centerpiece of the short term period, advertising mostly dry weather and warming temperatures. Pleasant temperatures are anticipated on Tuesday, but becomes warmer and a touch more humid heading into midweek as the high establishes itself overhead. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 210 AM Monday... Pressure height rises will continue to yield a warming trend heading into the end of the work week. Above normal temperatures will prevail, especially by Friday, with afternoon highs progged to reach the lower 90s. A rise in humidity levels will impose muggier conditions as an uptick in moisture streams up from the Gulf of Mexico. A weak disturbance tracks through the Ohio Valley late Thursday night into Friday, with a moisture starved cold front aiming for the Central Appalachians by the second half of the day Friday. Despite unfavorable upper level support with this passing system, hot and muggy conditions preceding the frontal passage may help stir up some isolated thunderstorms during peak heating hours. Dry weather triumphs once more in the wake of the front for the weekend beneath strong ridging aloft. Temperatures will continue to be unseasonably warm, with highs stretching into the 80s and 90s. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 600 AM Monday... Patchy fog near the southern terminals mixes out in the next couple hours. VFR conditions are expected for the bulk of the TAF period as a weak cold front transits the region today. This may yield some spotty showers, or perhaps even an isolated rumble of thunder late this afternoon into this evening. With low coverage expected, will address with VCTS/VCSH for now. Light winds this morning increase to 5-10KTs with some gusts into the teens from the southwest ahead of the cold front, turning west- northwesterly after frontal passage. Some additional patchy fog will be possible for Tuesday morning, contingent on clearing out low level clouds early enough. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Isolated to scattered convection could affect the terminals this afternoon. Patchy fog possible overnight, contingent on skies clearing. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Valley fog possible Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK NEAR TERM...JP/SL SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...JP