655
FXUS61 KRLX 221752
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
152 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm once again today, as high pressure exits.
Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into
Thursday. Rain chances through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 137 PM Wednesday...

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop over southeast Ohio and
northeast Kentucky this afternoon. A slight risk of severe
weather remains in place from central WV to points north and
west with the main threats being damaging wind gusts and hail.
In this area, pockets of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 kts of
0-6km bulk shear will support the development of a few stronger
storms. The overall best threat for severe weather today still
appears to be west of our region, across central Ohio and
central Kentucky, where more shear and instability will be
available.

There is the potential for another round of thunderstorms
overnight and into Thursday morning as a shortwave approaches
from the southwest. Some uncertainty exists regarding the
strength of these storms, and that will depend on how much
energy is dampened by this afternoon`s convective activity. Some
models show any convection weakening to just showers as they
approach from the west by 03-06Z.

There will be another threat for stronger thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon with a marginal risk currently forecast by SPC. The
threat level appears to be lower than today with lower
instability and shear. The main threats appear to be wind and
hail once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

A cold front will push into the area on Thursday. An upper
level short wave will then cause a wave along the front,
enhancing showers and thunderstorms for Thursday into Thursday
night.

The cold front will stall just south of the area late Thursday
night/Friday morning. An upper level short wave will then
interact with the front and cause a wave to move along the
front Friday afternoon into Saturday. Models continue to
struggle with the strength of the short wave, and hence how far
north the moisture gets and how strong the dynamics are with
this system. The Canadian actually keeps this system completely
south of the area.

A weak cold front will move into the area on Saturday. With the
parent low in southern Canada, very little push and energy is
available for the front in our area, thus not really providing
much cool air.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Models show a system lifting from the midwest on Sunday into
the Great Lakes region on Monday. This will push a warm front
across the area on Sunday, followed by a cold front on Monday.
With systems nearly every day from later today into Monday, am
getting increasingly concerned with the threat for flash
flooding to occur for Sunday and Monday. This will be followed
by an upper level wave on Tuesday in the significantly cooler
air. Models still have differences during the Sunday through
Tuesday time period, but generally agree on the overall
features for the first time in numerous nighttime runs.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 PM Wednesday...

Showers and thunderstorms will pop up over the region this
afternoon and into this evening. In any thunderstorm, visibility
can drop down to IFR for a brief time and winds can gust 40-50
kts. There is low confidence in the pinpoint timing of
thunderstorms, so just went with VCTS in the TAFS for now.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail in dry areas. There is
potential for another round of thunderstorms overnight and into
early Thursday morning.

Fog will develop in spots overnight, especially in areas where
it has recently rained. MVFR to IFR conditions are possible
overnight in fog. In addition, MVFR ceilings are expected to
move into the region Thursday morning after 06Z, with IFR
expected in the mountains. Low stratus will stick around through
late Thursday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms today and tonight could vary from the
forecast. Development of fog and low stratus Thursday morning
could vary.





EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms
Thursday morning with a cold front. IFR possible in showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night and again on
Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMC