493
FXUS61 KRLX 180539
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
139 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm chances lingering into Sunday. Water
issues possible this weekend with slow-moving thunderstorms and
showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 720 PM Friday...

Showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, are expected to
continue progressing northeast across the area as a wave lifts
overhead tonight. The current forecast is generally on track
this evening, with no significant changes made at this time.

As of 216 PM Friday...

A gloomy end to the work week is underway this afternoon as an
upper level wave tracks through the Ohio Valley, progged to
arrive over the forecast area heading into the evening/overnight
hours. A ribbon of stronger jet stream winds streams up from the
southwest may provide enough support, coupled with peeks of
sunshine within the canopy of overcast skies already parked
overhead, to sprout a few storms during peak heating hours.
Radar trends at the time of writing show mainly stratiform rain
passing over the Central Appalachians, but already seeing some
breaks in the clouds that could promote convection here shortly.

With increased storm activity possible this afternoon also comes
the potential for heavier rainfall rates. Steering flow aloft
depicted by forecast soundings under 30kts suggest slow moving
activity for this afternoon. Coupled with heavy downpours, this
could promote localized instances of flooding to grow possible.
Forecast rainfall amounts remain highest for our forecast office
neighbors to our east, but certainly will be something to
monitor through the course of the day.

Plethora of low level moisture tonight will maintain widespread
clouds overnight tonight, but will gradually attempt to erode
from west to east on Saturday. Hi-res CAMs suggest convective
activity will be more plentiful for the Mid-Atlantic region and
along the spine of the Appalachians Saturday afternoon, but did
retain light POPs for the central lowlands as well. Temperatures
will once again be dependent on sky conditions for sufficient
daytime heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

Drier on Sunday with surface high pressure and upper level ridge
nudging eastward into the area. Could still see a pop up shower or
storm, mainly over the higher terrain during peak heating hours, but
most areas should remain dry. Upper ridge will continue to build
eastward early next week, with increasing heat and humidity. An
isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out early next week,
particularly from any passing weak disturbance, or just due to
effects of daytime heating, but most of the period should remain dry
with little to no development.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1217 PM Friday...

Low pressure will move northeast into Canada in the middle of next
week, eventually sweeping a cold front across the area on Thursday,
although there is uncertainty in its timing and how far southward
the front will move through our area. There could be a strong storm
Wednesday or Thursday during this period, with better chances at
this point appearing to be across the north/SE Ohio/Mid Ohio Valley
region, but confidence in this is low at this point due to
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 AM Saturday...

Rain and showers across the area will gradually pull off to the
northeast early this morning. Expect MVFR conditions in the
precipitation with some IFR conditions at times. Some clearing
and holes in the clouds will allow for dense fog in southeast
Ohio, northeast Kentucky, and portions of western West Virginia.

After the fog burns off this morning, expect a cumulus deck.
Some afternoon showers and thunderstorms can be expected to
cause restrictions, most numerous in eastern and southern West
Virginia and southwestern Virginia.

Dense fog is expected to form across much of the area Saturday
night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Location and timing of fog early this
morning could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL
INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 05/18/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    L    L    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    L    L    L    M    L    L    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR in dense fog expected late Saturday night/Sunday morning. IFR
possible in rain showers and thunderstorms Sunday in eastern
West Virginia and southwestern Virginia.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...MEK/JLB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY