Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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874 FXUS61 KRLX 110522 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 122 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly dry this week with warming trend. Hot temperatures expected for the end of the week. Chance for showers and isolated storms on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 120 AM Tuesday... A quiet pattern is expected through near term as high pressure slowly slides east. The main concern this morning will be any fog formation where the low level cloud deck can manage to clear as surface winds drop to near zero, coverage should be patchy at best. Generally think this will be limited to the northwestern half of the forecast area and perhaps some more fog prone river valleys across the south. Tonight, as high pressure moves even closer overhead, should see some better chances for more widespread valley fog. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 205 PM Monday... High pressure keeps the weather dry through Thursday. Warming trend starts Wednesday with highs projected to be in the 70s and 80s for most. Thursday showcases even warmer temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s for the lowlands; mid 70s to mid 80s across the mountains. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1215 PM Monday... The long-term period looks rather sultry and muggy as the work week closes up and the weekend opens store. High pressure will remain nearby Friday morning. Temperatures on Friday will be hot with upper 80s and low 90s expected across the lowlands. The mountains will see mid 70s to the upper 80s. A weak cold front will move through during the late afternoon and evening allowing for chances of some showers or an isolated thunderstorm, but this will mostly be confined to the northern lowlands and mountains as a surface low looks to form along the front. High pressure will swiftly move in behind the front Saturday paired with warm moist flow from the Gulf to reinforce hot and humid conditions. Temperatures on Sunday are currently projected by blended guidance to be in the mid to upper 90s for the lowlands. Other model guidance also predicts similar outcomes. A stationary front will approach from the south Sunday and then move overhead on Monday. That said, kept chance PoPs across the southern portions of the forecast area. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 120 AM Tuesday... BKN-OVC 025-035 ceilings slowly work their way southeast this morning. Clearing in their wake coupled with light winds could yield some patchy valley fog, especially near CKB/EKN/CRW this morning. Any fog that does form mixes out through 13Z. Skies progressively clear through the day. Winds remain light, favoring a northerly direction. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and intensity of fog may vary from the forecast this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 06/11/24 UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L M M H M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L M M M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L M L H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L L H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Valley fog possible Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...JP