735
FXUS61 KRLX 101639
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1239 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front today with isolated showers and storms. Mostly dry
this week with warming trend. Hot temperatures expected end of
the week. Chance for showers and isolated storms on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1150 AM Monday...

Upper shortwave and weak surface front will cross the area this
afternoon with isolated showers and possibly storms developing as it
does so. Wave will move to the south and east of the area tonight,
with at least some partial clearing, although higher terrain may
hold onto some lower clouds overnight. Areas that do clear will see
the formation of valley fog overnight, with high pressure building
in and light winds. Tuesday looks to be dry, with high pressure in
control. Can`t completely rule out a brief passing shower from
combination of heating and weak ripples aloft, but overall,
atmosphere looks to be dry and stable, thus expecting a dry, sunny
day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Monday...

Surface high pressure will be the centerpiece of the short term
period, advertising mostly dry weather and warming
temperatures. Pleasant temperatures are anticipated on Tuesday,
but becomes warmer and a touch more humid heading into midweek
as the high establishes itself overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Monday...

The long-term period looks rather sultry and muggy as the work
week closes up and the weekend opens store. High pressure will
remain nearby Friday morning. Temperatures on Friday will be
hot with upper 80s and low 90s expected across the lowlands. The
mountains will see mid 70s to the upper 80s.

A weak cold front will move through during the late afternoon
and evening allowing for chances of some showers or an isolated
thunderstorm, but this will mostly be confined to the northern
lowlands and mountains as a surface low looks to form along the
front.

High pressure will swiftly move in behind the front Saturday
paired with warm moist flow from the Gulf to reinforce hot and
humid conditions. Temperatures on Sunday are currently projected
by blended guidance to be in the mid to upper 90s for the
lowlands. Other model guidance also predicts similar outcomes.

A stationary front will approach from the south Sunday and then
move overhead on Monday. That said, kept chance PoPs across the
southern portions of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 600 AM Monday...

Patchy fog near the southern terminals mixes out in the next couple
hours.

VFR conditions are expected for the bulk of the TAF period as a weak
cold front transits the region today. This may yield some spotty
showers, or perhaps even an isolated rumble of thunder late this
afternoon into this evening. With low coverage expected, will
address with VCTS/VCSH for now.

Light winds this morning increase to 5-10KTs with some gusts into
the teens from the southwest ahead of the cold front, turning west-
northwesterly after frontal passage.

Some additional patchy fog will be possible for Tuesday morning,
contingent on clearing out low level clouds early enough.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Isolated to scattered convection could
affect the terminals this afternoon. Patchy fog possible
overnight, contingent on skies clearing.







EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Valley fog possible Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JP