Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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412 FXUS61 KRLX 081550 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1150 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure advertises dry and pleasant weather today. Precipitation chances return early Sunday with a cold front. Mainly dry through the work week with building heat. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1120 AM Saturday... No changes needed to the forecast other than updating the sky cover forecast. Used the latest blend of models as it had the best representation of current obs, as well as proper timing with the front for Sunday. As of 600 AM Saturday... Included a brief mention in the wx grids of river valley fog within the southern WV coalfields early this morning. Similar to yesterday, fog should quickly erode over the next few hours as the sun continues to rise. Also tweaked temperatures for valley cold spots this morning, but otherwise the rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 100 AM Saturday... Another dry day is on tap for the start of the weekend with the aid of nearby high pressure. Clear skies triumph for the beginning of the period, but we should start to see a canopy of mid to high level clouds invade from the west early this afternoon into this evening. This will mark the slow approach of a disturbance progged for arrival on Sunday. Hi-res guidance suggests very light shower activity could accompany lowering ceilings today, but dry air still present near the surface will mitigate much from reaching the ground until very late tonight into early Sunday morning. Cool and comfortable weather is anticipated once again for this afternoon, with highs extending into the 70s/low 80s and dew points still down in the 50s. A stronger moisture pull begins late tonight ahead of the next disturbance, which will yield rising dew points by the conclusion of the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Saturday... A weak cold front arriving Sunday morning will yield mainly light rain across the region with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder across our southern counties. Precipitation largely clears the region to the southeast by early Sunday evening. Expected rainfall amounts are generally between a tenth and a quarter of an inch with this activity. In the wake of this activity, northwesterly flow continues aloft yielding temperatures around 5 degrees below normal for this time of the year for Monday and Tuesday. Couldn`t completely rule out a stray shower on Monday as a shortwave transits the base of the long wave trough overhead, but most locations should remain dry. Heights begin to rise Tuesday as low amplitude ridging begins to move into the Lower Ohio Valley with surface temperatures edging up around a degree or two above Monday`s values. With a still rather dry airmass and no forcing overhead, expecting a dry day for all Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1150 AM Saturday... Increasingly warm and humid conditions will take hold for mid to late week as upper ridge takes hold across the area. Ridge will break down towards the end of the period, with unsettled weather returning once again as a cold front approaches the area. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 600 AM Saturday... Despite an increase in high cirrus this morning, dry weather and VFR conditions are anticipated to hold steady through this evening. Increasing cloud coverage will be observed through the course of the day ahead of a disturbance pressing in Sunday morning. A gradual decline in ceiling heights take place as the TAF period wears on, with MVFR settling into northern terminals shortly after sunrise Sunday morning. Showers and additional flight restrictions invade beyond 12z Sunday. A brief round of coalfield river valley fog this morning, noted on satellite imagery, will quickly erode today under light to breezy southwest flow. Flow remains out of the southwest tonight, becoming more northwesterly Sunday morning in the midst of a passing cold front. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible under showers or thunderstorms Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC NEAR TERM...MEK/LTC SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MEK