044
FXUS61 KRLX 080459
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1259 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure advertises dry and pleasant weather today.
Precipitation chances return early Sunday with a cold front,
with pop-up activity continuing into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Saturday...

Another dry day is on tap for the start of the weekend with the
aid of nearby high pressure. Clear skies triumph for the
beginning of the period, but we should start to see a canopy of
mid to high level clouds invade from the west early this
afternoon into this evening. This will mark the slow approach of
a disturbance progged for arrival on Sunday. Hi-res guidance
suggests very light shower activity could accompany lowering
ceilings today, but dry air still present near the surface will
mitigate much from reaching the ground until very late tonight
into early Sunday morning.

Cool and comfortable weather is anticipated once again for this
afternoon, with highs extending into the 70s/low 80s and dew
points still down in the 50s. A stronger moisture pull begins
late tonight ahead of the next disturbance, which will yield
rising dew points by the conclusion of the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1146 AM Friday...

A quick moving shortwave will affect the area late Saturday night,
early Sunday, with some light shower activity possible, mainly
across far southern zones. Showers and storm chances increase during
the afternoon Sunday, with the arrival/passage of a weak cold front,
combined with diurnal heating. Thunderstorms should generally be
isolated in nature, and severe is not anticipated. Much in the way
of water issues are not anticipated either due to isolated nature
and anticipated movement of any storms. A shortwave moving across
the northeast may provide some light/brief shower/storm activity
mainly across the north and east on Monday, but overall drier and
cooler weather will take hold with surface high pressure building
in, and northwesterly flow aloft taking hold.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

Increasingly warm and humid conditions will take hold for mid week
as upper ridge takes hold across the area. Ridge will break down
towards the end of the period, with unsettled weather returning once
again. Greatest chances for activity look to lie across eastern
zones during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions can be expected through the TAF period under the
establishment of high pressure. High clouds passing through
early this morning will depart eastward, with clear skies then
persisting into early this afternoon. A disturbance arriving
for the end of the weekend will begin to cast lowered ceilings
this evening into the overnight hours, but remaining within VFR
thresholds. Showers encroach shortly after the end of the valid
TAF period.

Breezy low level flow will mitigate fog development early this
morning. Southwest winds prevail through today, becoming
slightly breezy along the higher terrain this afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 06/08/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible under showers or thunderstorms Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MEK