636
FXUS61 KRLX 120523
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
123 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure keeps warm and dry conditions through Thursday.
Chance for showers and isolated storms on Friday. Becoming hot
and muggy to end the week and start next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Wednesday...

A quiet pattern continues as troughing over the east coast is
increasingly replaced by high zonal flow aloft with high pressure at
the surface. The main forecast issue for this morning and again
Thursday morning will be coverage of fog with near zero flow through
10kft, seasonably moist low levels, and dry air in the mid-levels
overhead. With lack of substantial recent rainfall will confined any
significantly reduced visibilities to the valleys with a patchy fog
mention elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Tuesday...

High pressure will continue to be in control across the area on
Thursday, with hot conditions. There could be a pop up shower or
storm during peak heating across the higher terrain, but overall,
expecting a mainly dry forecast. On Friday, a cold front will move
into the region, providing a chance for showers and storms once
again. An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be completely ruled
out during the period, with mainly a damaging wind potential. But
overall, coverage of convection doesn`t appear to be that widespread
at this point. The front and associated cloud cover and convection
will taper high temperatures slightly on Friday compared to
Thursday. Front should sag to the south of the area late Friday
night into early Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Tuesday...

Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures will take hold for
Saturday behind the front. Conditions will become increasingly hot
and humid by the end of the week into early next week, as upper
heights build, and a warm front moves through the region, with dew
points surging across the area, possibly into the upper 60s to lower
70s. This combined with temperatures forecast to be in the mid to
upper 90s across the lowlands, particularly on Monday, will result
in heat indices nearing 100. In addition, shower and thunderstorm
activity looks to increase across the area during the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 AM Wednesday...

With just thin cirrus floating overhead, light winds, and dry mid-
levels above us, valley fog will be the main forecast concern this
morning. Already starting to see patchy fog develop near CRW/EKN and
would expect the valleys to continue to fill in toward daybreak.
Highest confidence in IFR impacts at EKN/CRW/CKB, but could also see
a brief period of IFR near PKB/HTS near daybreak. Any fog that does
form mixing out through 13Z. Thereafter, continued SCT to
occasionally BKN cirrus.

Winds remain light, weakly favoring a northerly direction.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog this morning. Otherwise,
high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/duration of fog this morning could
vary from the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                        WED 06/12/24
UTC 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
EDT 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR valley fog possible Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JP