456
FXUS61 KRNK 140003
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
803 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in the area through tonight. A front
tracks through the mid-Atlantic Friday, before high pressure
works in again for the weekend. Temperatures remain several
degrees above normal each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Warm and humid with an isolated shower or storm possible this
evening.

2) Marginal Risk for severe storms Friday afternoon and evening.

Subsidence inversion still winning out for the most part. Cloud
buildups this past afternoon morphed into a few showers, but
then fanned out underneath the inversion... low cloud type 4 or
stratocumulus formed by the spreading/flattening of cumulus.

Any showers/storms should fade this evening leaving behind
mostly clear skies. Could have some fog in the valleys across
our mountain counties overnight into dawn, but confidence low.

Friday, a front tracks southeast toward the area, with the 5h
pattern suggest weak forcing. At the moment, the models in
general agreement in meager storm chances so kept pops on the
low side, with widely scattered coverage by late afternoon over
the mountains/foothills. However, any storms that do fire will
encounter high DCAPE and will have the potential for strong
downdraft winds and potential to produce wind damage. Much of
the forecast area has been highlighted by the Storm Prediction
Center for this potential hazard.

A little more west/northwest flow should allow temperatures to
creep up to around 90 in Piedmont and Roanoke/Southern
Shenandoah Valleys, with 80s in the mountains, which for most
will be about 5 degrees above normal.

Confidence in the near term is high, except on storm
coverage/pops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1. Mostly dry and warm weekend.

Upper and sfc ridging is progged to build into the area in the wake
of the near term fropa. The subsident airmass should allow for
mostly dry and warmer conditions for the weekend. Afternoon max
temps look to make it to the low to mid 80s for many locations
Saturday and Sunday. The sfc high slides more east of the area for
Sunday and the low level fetch shifts south to SE allowing some
higher dewpts to advect northward under the upper ridge. We may get
some isolated convective development in the southwest for Sunday
afternoon but most of the area should stay largely suppressed.

Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1. Warmer temps into the work week with continued mostly dry
conditions.

Most of the work week should be under a lingering pattern as the
aforementioned sfc high continues to stay centered off the east
coast and the upper ridge persisted across the eastern CONUS with
some northward drifting. Some of the warmest temps of the year look
to be reached in the afternoons as a result with many locations
getting into the upper 80s to low 90s. Daytime heating combined with
some enhanced moisture trapped under the cutoff ridge could allow
for slight chances of diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
potential across some of the mountains. The mornings could have
patchy fog potential especially for locations that receive precip
from any previous PM development.

Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Thursday...

Mainly VFR expected through the 24 hour valid TAF. Aside for
some isolated showers this evening the only other potential
hazard may be some light fog/haze in the New River and
Greenbrier valleys around daybreak Friday with brief impacts to
KLWB/KBCB. Winds through tonight are expected to remain under 10
kts to near calm in the valleys.

Forecast confidence is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A cold front will cross the area from the north late Friday.
Front will be the focus for late afternoon and evening
thunderstorm development. There is a marginal risk for severe
weather. Storms may contain strong downdraft winds.

After the frontal passage, high pressure will build back over
the region for the weekend and into early next week. Aside for
some morning river fog in the mountain valleys, conditions are
expected to be primarily VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...PM