220
FXUS61 KRNK 100623
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
223 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and cooler weather is expected today and tonight.
Dry weather prevails through the work week. Temperatures trend
warmer with 90s possible for highs in some locations Wednesday
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 205 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Pleasant but slightly cooler weather today and tonight.

2. Clouds this afternoon and into the overnight.

A vertically stacked low pressure system will hold over Maine
and the Canadian Maritimes through early Tuesday. Upper level
energy will dive down the western side of the mean trough from
central Canada and the Great Lakes region before turning east
to cut across the TN Valley and Mid Atlantic. This will keep the
southern Appalachians in the crosshairs of an upper level jet
streak and associated vorticity bands as the large scale trough
sinks south with time. This should manifest in widespread
cumulus developing around noon between 5-7 kft. Could be a few
sprinkles/light showers and perhaps a lightning strike or two
over the Greenbrier Valley and parts of the Shenandoah Valley
this afternoon as lapse rates increase but this chances are low
and end with nightfall.

The synoptic scale trajectory will also continue to advect
cooler air in from the north, keeping temperatures a few
degrees below normal. The better push of cool air comes after
dark tonight as winds turn more northerly behind a secondary
frontal passage. As heights and temperatures drop, moisture
will pool on the upslope side of the mountains, and we will see
some scattered to perhaps broken lower clouds and fog Tuesday
morning, with PWATs still maintaining a half inch to three-
quarters of an inch.

Confidence in the near term is moderate.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM EDT Monday...

Key Points:

1. A warming trend begins Wednesday.
2. Dry weather through the period.

An upper level trough will exit the area Tuesday followed by
high pressure Tuesday night. This surface ridge will hang over
the region through Thursday. No precipitation is expected
through the period.

While under the influence of the upper level trough, Tuesday`s
high temperatures will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s
across the mountains and the upper 70s to lower 80s in the
foothills and piedmont. Dry high pressure, abundant sunshine and
increasing heights aloft will bring a warming trend to the area
Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday, highs will range in the
80s west of the Blue Ridge to the lower 90s east. These
temperatures are 5F-10F warmer than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 AM EDT Monday...

Key Points:

1. Above normal temperatures through the period
2. Friday will be the warmest day of the week/year.
3. Isolated showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, possible
Friday.

A cold front approaches the area Friday, then track over the
area into central North Carolina overnight into Saturday
morning. Showers are possible with the passing of the front,
while the strongest convection remains north of the area. If
models are correct, high pressure will move from the Ohio Valley
Saturday, then wedge south into the Carolinas overnight into
Sunday.

Warmer than normal temperatures likely ahead of the front
Friday. Friday`s high could peak in the mid 80s to lower 90s
in the mountains and mid 90s in the foothills and piedmont. Cool
dry high pressure will knockoff a few degrees from afternoon
highs over the weekend, but will remain warmer than normal into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...

In general expect VFR conditions with widespread cumulus
developing around noon between 5-8 kft. There will be a low
chance for -SHRA north of LWB this afternoon, but not reaching
the TAF site. Winds will also be gusty and westerly to 20 kts,
becoming light and NW overnight.

Tonight, a secondary cold front will be accompanied by MVFR or
lower stratus and perhaps fog for the mountains.

Confidence in the above forecast is above normal.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR anticipated through the upcoming week. Mainly dry conditions
expected Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...SH