930
FXUS61 KRNK 311022
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
622 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually track across the Mid Atlantic
region through Saturday then offshore by Sunday. Dry weather
with unseasonably cool temperatures will continue into the
weekend. Showers and thunderstorms return to the region for the
beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message: Chilly overnights, and warm afternoons. Dry
conditions expected.

Upper trough shifts offshore today as large Canadian high
pressure builds in overhead. Winds have continued to decrease
this morning and most locations light or even calm. Clear skies
also favorable for good radiative cooling so sheltered low spots
will be in the low 40s to perhaps upper 30s by sunrise.
Temperatures warm today under mostly sunny skies with highs
generally in the 70s. Winds much lighter as well, out of the
north.

Another chilly night expected again tonight with high pressure
still overhead. Low to mid 40s seem likely once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for dry weather on Saturday.

2) A chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for both Sunday
and Monday.

High pressure will drift towards the East Coast on Saturday but
should keep the Mid Atlantic dry. As the high heads offshore by
Saturday night, a weak area of low pressure should approach the Ohio
River Valley. Temperatures will not dip as low due to the increasing
moisture, and some showers may reach the Appalachian Mountains by
early Sunday morning. Scattered thunderstorms could develop during
midday and linger into the evening before fading after sunset.

While conditions appear a little more tranquil for Sunday night into
Monday morning, enough instability and orographical lift could spark
isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Blue Ridge by Monday
afternoon. Providing the extra instability will be an increase in
temperatures due to an upper level ridge building overhead. The
convective activity will wane during Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for more daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms.

2) Stronger storms may be possible during Wednesday and Thursday.

An upper level ridge will keep building over the Mid Atlantic during
Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, an upper level trough should track
eastward towards the northern Plains. While there still remains some
notable discrepancies in the models, the consensus solution depicts
a southerly flow that will advect more moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico. This moisture should combine with daytime heating to produce
daily chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout this forecast
period. Some stronger storms might be possible during Wednesday and
Thursday due to increasing synoptic lift as a cold front moves
eastward from the Plains to the Ohio River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 620 AM EDT Friday...

Widespread VFR expected for the valid 24hr TAF period.

Dry high pressure is building overhead this morning and will
remain in place through Saturday. Light northeast winds today
will transition to calm again tonight.

Very low chance of some valley fog development during the early
morning hours on Saturday, but confidence is rather low.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions continue through the beginning of the weekend,
aside from potential fog at LWB/BCB early in the mornings.

Storms may bring periods of sub-VFR conditions Sunday afternoon
through Tuesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG