246
FXUS61 KRNK 240247
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1047 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will stall across the Ohio Valley today and Friday,
resulting in multiple days with showers and thunderstorms over
the area. Then a low pressure system crossing the Great Lakes
will push a cold front through the Mid Atlantic region early
Tuesday. This will lead in drier and cooler weather for the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1045 PM EDT Thursday...

Latest forecast update reflect current radar trends, as well as
latest rapid update model guidance suggesting that showers and
occasional rumbles of thunder will pass across the area through
much of the night into Friday morning in hit-and-miss fashion.
Given widespread cloud cover and a moist atmosphere, raised
overnight low temperatures a degree or two for much of the
region.

As of 730 PM EDT Thursday...

Latest forecast update reflects the lull in shower and
thunderstorm activity early this evening. However, keeping an
eye on the broken line of storms advancing across central and
eastern Kentucky, which will eventually push across our area
tonight. Believe most of the thunderstorms will diminish,
however showers will hold together enough to bring additional
rainfall for much of the area. Showers and a few storms are
expected to persist through early Friday afternoon in on-and-
off fashion, before exiting the area as area of low pressure
supporting this activity moves off to the east.

As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

   - Showers and storms throughout this afternoon
   - Less opportunity for showers Friday

Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are tracking through
southwest VA and northern NC currently. Today has been much
cloudier than yesterday, suppressing instability a bit. As a
result this may delay the more severe thunderstorm activity for
a while longer. However, the presence of a frontal boundary
across the area is allowing for more widespread shower coverage
than yesterday. Mesoanalysis shows stronger instability south of
the VA/NC state line, which would indicate the area of greatest
risk for wind damage from storms would be there. Several high-
res models tend to agree with this hypothesis. Nowhere in our
forecast area can be counted out for severe weather this
afternoon and evening though.

After things quiet down this evening, the aforementioned front
will remain stationary over the area. A small shortwave will
move near the front on Friday, continuing our daily pattern of
showers and storms. With less instability available, Friday`s
greatest concern will be heavy rain and flooding potential as we
have seen round after round of rainfall the past few days.

Temperatures will be fairly typical for late May, with highs in
the 70s to mid 80s, and lows in the 50s to low 60s. With all the
rain and a lackadaisical front, humidity will be high as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday
2. Areal coverage of storms increases Sunday
3. Well above normal temperatures.

A disturbance is expected to move over the region Friday evening.
Convection will wane with lose of heating, but outflow boundaries
may keep showers on-going overnight. On Saturday, the area will be
in the warm sector with diurnal scattered storms firing during the
afternoon and evening hours. As typical with summer convection,
storms will fade away through the overnight hours. Sunday looks to
be the most active day for severe weather as a cold front approaches
from the west. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, more
areal coverage of strong storms are possible.

PWATs through the period will run high (greater than 1.40 inches)
and with the wet antecedent soils, flooding will be possible with
stronger and/or slow moving storms. The severe weather threat each
afternoon and evening will primarily be damaging wind gusts.

Being in the warm sector for much of the forecast period, afternoon
temperatures will run around 10F warmer than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

1. A frontal passage with strong storm Monday
2. Primarily mountain showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday.
3. Temperatures return to normal following the frontal passage Monday

A cold front is expected to move across the area on Memorial Day. A
line of strong convections will accompany this frontal passage.
Quieter weather is likely for the rest of the week, but can not rule
out a few showers and thunderstorms over the mountains Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon.

Warmer than normal temperatures continue on Monday. Temperatures for
the rest of the week will drop back to normal levels following the
frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Thursday...

Radar indicates a lull in the shower/thunderstorm activity this
evening for most of the forecast area, though keeping an eye on
convection moving across central/eastern Kentucky that will
pass across our area tonight. Believe that most of the
thunderstorms will come to an end once passing east of the
Interstate 77 corridor, however showers will hold together
further east for the most part. Scattered MVFR conditions are
also expected, in the form of both low ceilings and reduced
visibilities in rainfall.

Low pressure will pass overhead on Friday, and then shift east
during early afternoon. With the departure of the low, expect a
north-northwesterly windshift that will temporarily bring an
end to showers and storms across the area by around 24/20Z.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail thereafter through the end of
the TAF period.

Average confidence for ceiling, wind, and visibility

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Periods of showers and thunderstorms, especially each afternoon
and evening, will continue through Monday. MVFR remain likely
with any of the thunderstorms.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...NF/VFJ
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NF/VFJ