905
FXUS63 KSGF 061741
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and some thunder possible today.

- Pattern change for the weekend expected with potential for a
  few rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall is the
  greatest potential threat, but severe weather will also be
  possible. Confidence in specific details is quite low at this
  time.

- A cooler than average start to next week will be possible with
  highs Monday and Tuesday in the middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Majority of short term guidance is showing a narrow band of
showers moving through the area today, with potential for some
embedded thunder. This is in response to weak shortwave energy
moving down through the NW flow aloft. Have increased the PoPs
and cloud cover associated with this, which also results in
cooler temperatures. These effects are most notable over the
western and central CWA. For example, highs are forecast to
range from the mid 70s to around 80 over Springfield and
northwest, but in the upper 80s to around 90 over the far
southeastern CWA.

For tonight, look for lows in the 50s under clear skies.

Friday will see highs in the mid 80s with increasing high cloud
filtering into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Main attention this forecast period is on convective potential
Friday night into Sunday as models show rounds of heavy
rainfall with MCS activity. This is being driven by NW flow
aloft and a stalled surface front over the region.

Overall confidence in details this weekend is low given the
nature of MCS activity and the inherent difficulty in
predicting details until a few hours ahead of time. In general,
we can see there is potential for the activity and right now it
favors the northern and northeastern CWA Friday night into
Saturday and much of the CWA Saturday night into Sunday, but of
course MCSs can take pretty dramatic turns based on mesoscale
features that are not predictable at this time range. Agree with
the SPC marginal severe risk associated with this convection
and also with WPC marginal to slight ERO outlooks given
potential for repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. Exact rainfall
amounts, and resulting flood potential and river forecasts, will
remain uncertain and quite variable until much closer to the
time of the event. Cloud cover and temperatures will be highly
dependent on the convective activity, so confidence in those
details is also low. Stay tuned to the forecast and be prepared
to adjust plans.

We could see some additional precip Sunday night into Monday,
but confidence is even lower with that.

Cooler conditions are expected for Monday with highs in the 70s,
but will bounce back into the mid 80s by Wednesday. Could see
some additional precip chances toward the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Scattered showers are currently occuring from south-central
Missouri to eastern Kansas, and will move across the area
during the next few hours. Isolated lightning strikes are
possible in Springfield as the storms in eastern Kansas move
southeast, but probabilities are too low to include in TAFS.
VFR conditions are expected to persist otherwise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Soria/Kenny