529
FXUS63 KSGF 212334
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
634 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures this afternoon with highs in
  the 90s west of Highway 65. A 30% chance of a thunderstorm
  late this afternoon and evening, especially south of
  Springfield.

- Multiple rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms are
  expected late tonight through Monday (40-80% chance). Most
  locations will see an additional 0.50 to 2 inches of rainfall
  through Monday.

- Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday
  afternoon and evening. Main hazard will be damaging wind gusts
  up to 60 mph.

- A cold front will bring cooler temperatures next week with
  highs in the 70s and limited rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows the center of an upper level high across
Texas with clockwise flow around it into the Ozarks. Showers and
thunderstorms moved through the area this morning and pushed a
outflow boundary into northern Arkansas. Another weak boundary
appears evident to the northeast of Springfield up towards Lake
of the Ozarks. Skies have cleared out for the southwest half of
the area and temps have rebounded well into the upper 80s to
lower/middle 90s. Locations northeast of Springfield continue
to see thicker cloud cover and cooler temps with a strong
instability gradient setup from Joplin to Branson with ML CAPE
around 2000j/kg.

This Afternoon: Will be watching visible satellite imagery along
that remnant outflow boundary across Arkansas as well as the
boundary to the northeast of Springfield as they will be the
only sources of lift. Upper level lift is fairly absent at the
time and displaced north of the area. Several high res models
do show isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along both
outflow boundaries late this afternoon and evening. Confidence
is not high with respect to the coverage of showers and storms.
The airmass is unstable and PW values are high (1.8in) therefore
any storms that form will likely produce heavy rainfall rates,
lightning and brief wind gusts to 50mph (given steep low level
lapse rates). Precip chances remain in the 20-40% range across
areas from Springfield south to Branson this evening as well as
northeast of Springfield. Activity should begin to diminish
with the loss of daytime heating after 8pm. Temperatures will
continue heating up into the upper 90s west of Springfield with
heat index values between 95 and 100 west of Highway 65.

Overnight: A cold front will be moving southeast through Kansas
tonight as shortwave energy moves into the region. A low level
jet looks to increase after 10pm and will develop an expansive
area of showers and storms along and behind the front. Latest
high res guidance has this activity pushing into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri after 10pm, continuing off and on
into the overnight hours as well as spreading into areas along
and north of US Highway 54. No severe weather is expected with
this activity. Latest HREF is showing small pockets of 0.5 to 1
inch potential with the afternoon/evening storms and again
overnight to the northwest of Springfield.

Sunday: A cold front will be in the process of making its way
through the area during the morning hours and expecting an area
of showers and storms for areas along and north of I-44. Models
then show perhaps a brief break/lull during the late morning
hours before another round gets going during the afternoon and
evening as additional upper level energy moves in. Mean MU CAPES
around 1000-2000j/kg and 0-6km shear around 30kts are forecast
by afternoon, especially east of Springfield. This could create
a few severe storms with damaging winds to 60mph however this
will depend on heating. High temperatures look to be tempered
into the 80s due to clouds and precip with areas north of
Springfield perhaps staying in the 70s. Pockets of 0.5 to 1 inch
of rain are likely with the heaviest storms Sunday.

Sunday Night: While the surface front will reside south of the
area, the 850mb front will be overhead and additional elevated
showers and storms look likely. HREF data again shows pockets of
0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall with this activity. No severe weather
is expected at this time with the overnight activity.
Temperatures will be falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s as
cooler air moves in.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Monday: The shortwave trough looks to push through the area
during the day therefore another round of light to moderate rain
looks likely with rain chances between 40-80%. Rain and
northerly winds will keep temps below average with highs in the
lower 70s. Highs may need to be lowered closer to the 25th
percentile (upper 60s) in future updates.

Storm total rainfall amounts (Tonight through Monday) look to
range from a half inch to 2 inches. HREF and NBM data does
suggests pockets of 3-4 inches northeast of Springfield. Given
the ongoing drought, we are not expecting widespread flooding at
this time but will monitor any localized/sensitive locations.

Tuesday through Friday: Confidence has really dropped off as
ensembles are not in agreement with shortwave energy that drops
south into the central US around mid week. Ensembles weighted
more with the GFS are more bullish with precip chances as they
are stronger and further east with the upper low. This is an
outlier at this time but will continue to monitor precip chances
mid to late week. Currently precip chances are only around 20
percent. Confidence is higher with temperatures as NBM spreads
are not as large with highs likely in the 70s and lows in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Thunderstorms producing quarter sized hail and damaging wind
gusts up to 70 mph are moving through the area for the next
couple of hours. As sunset approaches, expect storms to
dissipate. VFR for tonight before rain returns accompanying a
cold front on Sunday. Winds will shift out of the north by
Sunday afternoon. Ceilings may decrease into MVFR levels once
the front pushes through.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2024


Record High Temperatures (Joplin):

September 21:
99 (2022) Forecast: 97



Record Highest Minimum Temperatures (Springfield):

September 21:
73 (1931) Forecast: 74

September 22:
70 (2017) Forecast: 70



Record Highest Minimum Temperatures (Joplin):

September 21:
76 (1980) Forecast: 76

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Soria
CLIMATE...Burchfield