Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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592 FXUS63 KSGF 091856 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 156 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An area of showers and storms will continue to push east across south central Missouri early this afternoon. - Residual flooding will likely continue through the night into Monday after the area of 5 to 8 inches of rain over the past 2 days. - A cooler than average early this week with highs today through Tuesday in the middle 70s. - Warmer Temperatures return later in the week into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show a low pressure system over southwestern Quebec with a trough extendingn south into the Great Lakes and Ohio valley. A ridge was developing over the Rockies and high plains with a northwesterly flow developing over the central U.S. in between these features. This was helping to slowly push a front south of the MO/AR border with a surface high moving into the area. The boundary which was over the area last night with tropical like moisture over the area aided in training thunderstorms which brought about widespread flooding. Two day totals of 5 to 8 inches have occured in an area from near Nevada to near Springfield to north of West Plains. Many rivers remain in flood (minor to moderate) and MODOT was reporting many low water crossings flooded throughout the CWA. Rest of the afternoon: Showers, with a few remaining rumbles of thunder will continue to scoot eastward and out of the area during the remainder of the afternoon, but should clear the area by late afternoon or early evening. Cloud cover will likely persist over much of the CWA, with some clearing taking place in the northern CWA, eventually spreading southward. Tonight: Clearing should continue from north to south with a cooler and drier air mass moving into the area. Temperatures should dip into the low to mid 50s for lows tonight. May need to watch out for some fog development with a clearing sky and light wind developing and the recent heavy rainfall. CAMS are not really showing much for fog development and for now have left out of the forecast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Early part of the week: Residual flooding will likely continue through at least Monday from the heavy rainfall this weekend. North to northwest flow aloft will continue and bring in a Canadian air mass with cooler and drier air to the area. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s for highs with lows Monday night in the 50s and Tuesday night in the mid 50s to low 60s. Wednesday through Saturday: A warming trend is expected through the period. Flow will become more zonal by Wednesday with the jet stream well to the north along the US/Canadian border. Some upper ridging will move into the area. Moisture will continue to increase on the back side of the surface high. Temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s to low 90s by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. May need to monitor for some afternoon/evening instability based thunderstorms, but for now am going with a dry forecast. A front may push through on Friday into Friday night which would have a more focused chance of convection, but for now we are keeping dry conditions going through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 For the 18z TAFS, rain has generally ended at the 3 TAF sites, but still have IFR/MVFR conditions with low ceilings. This will gradually improved through the remainder of the afternoon. Drier air will continue to work south into the area with high pressure, eventually clearing things out during the early to middle evening hours. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Lindenberg