231
FXUS63 KSGF 182300
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
600 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry and becoming unseasonably warm through the rest
  of the work week with the hottest day on Friday.

- Some low-end rain chances late in the week (10-30%)...with
  better chances over the weekend (20-55%)...and additional
  chances through the middle of next week (10-30%).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show 3 distinct areas of low pressure.
1) off the coast of California, 2) over eastern Montana and 3)
over the Carolinas. The two western upper lows were within a
more broad trough that extended into the upper Mississippi
valley. East of the trough, upper ridging was developing from
south Texas into the mid Mississippi valley. A large cumulus
field has developed over the area this afternoon across the CWA.
Temperatures have risen into the mid 80s with dew points in the
low to mid 60s.

For tonight, the cumulus field should begin to diminish late in
the afternoon and early this evening. Any convection is expected
to remain to our west. There will again be a large range in
overnight lows with coolest readings in the eastern Ozarks with
some upper 50s to low 60s...and mid to upper 60s in the west.

Thursday, the ridge axis will begin to amplify from Mexico into
the mid Mississippi valley. Low level warm advection will also
increase, especially over the west where 850mb temperatures
rise into the low 20s(C). An instability axis will set up mainly
to the west of the area, however some of the CAMS are developing
convection over the western half of the CWA during the
afternoon. Will generally have low pops(10-25%) for mainly the
afternoon hours. Highs should range from the upper 80s in the
east to the mid 90s in the west.

Thursday night, a southwesterly low level jet will set up over
the western CWA. With high moisture content and elevated
instability, we`re going to maintain some low pops(10-25%) over
the area. It will be very mild with lows from the mid 60s in the
east to the low 70s in the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The hottest day looks to be on Friday where 850mb temperatures
will be in the low to mid 20s(C) over the west. Our local
climate study shows mid to upper 90s for those kind of 850mb
temperatures and in fact we do have some mid to upper 90s
temperatures in the west and upper 80s to low 90s in the east.
Heat index values in the upper 90s to around 103 will also be
possible in the west. Some lingering convection will mainly
be possible in the eastern Ozarks during the morning with little
or no precipitation during the afternoon.

Our highest chance of rain(20-55%) looks to be over the weekend
as the current low off the California coast shifts east into the
plains and Mississippi valley.

As we head further into the extended, there is a large
variability within the ensemble cluster analysis within many of
the overall fields which is lending to an overall low confidence
forecast. Because of timing differences with these features we
have model averaged pops that continue through the entire
extended period but are generally on the low side(30% or less),
which also has an affect on temperatures and we are seeing a
decent spread within the 25th-75th percentile range heading
through the early to mid part of next week. There should be a
gradual cooling trend through the week however and drift to more
normal readings.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

High confidence in VFR conditions through tonight with a daytime
cumulus field dissipating this evening. Winds around 5 to 10
knots out of the south-southeast overnight. On Thursday, winds
become more southerly with occasional wind gusts up to 20 knots
at KJLN. An additional cumulus field develops into the early
afternoon, with low end rain chances (10-20%) late in the TAF
period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Record High Temperatures (Joplin):

September 19:
98 (1954) Forecast: 94

September 20:
99 (1954)       Forecast: 97



Record Highest Minimum Temperatures (Springfield):

September 20:
74 (2018) Forecast: 70

September 21:
73 (1931)       Forecast: 70

September 22:
70 (2017) Forecast: 69



Record Lowest Precipitation for Month of September:

Springfield: 0.05" (1928)
September 2024 Thusfar: 0.04"

Joplin: 0.2" (2013)
September 2024 Thusfar: 0.00"

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Perez
CLIMATE...Camden