905
FXUS63 KSGF 151717
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1217 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances (30-65%) today (Sunday) east of Highway 65. Total
  rainfall amounts generally less than half an inch, though far
  south-central MO may see up to 0.75". Most locations to the
  west to remain dry.

- Below average temperatures Sunday, with a warming trend
  beginning on Monday and continuing through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A very broad surface high associated with an upper-level ridge is
poised over the eastern Great Lakes, while a compact upper-level low
associated with an inverted surface trough is centered over the
Arkansas Delta. The low (remnants of "Francine") has become stuck in
place as it weakens, with the broad high to the northeast blocking
it from further northward progression. This synoptic pattern will
continue, with a ridge along the eastern slopes of the Rockies
further holding this disturbance just southeast of CWA boundaries at
least through Monday.


Persistent cloud cover associated with this disturbance is also
being held in place over the eastern Ozarks, with low stratus
reducing visibilities as it builds down. West Plains (KUNO) recorded
half mile visibilities associated with fog early Sunday morning, and
these reduced visibilities could linger across the eastern Ozarks
under the cloud deck through sunrise. After sunrise, the ceilings
will begin to lift, though overcast skies will remain mostly
inmotile with the exception of a slow expansion west through the day
Sunday.

A modest east-west temperature gradient will develop this afternoon
due to the contrast between clear skies in the west and thick cloud
cover to the east. Highs will range from upper 80s (near 90) along
the KS/MO border, while temperatures will only reach the mid-70s
underneath the clouds. Easterly winds may become a bit gusty this
afternoon as well, up into the 20-25mph range.

However, the biggest story with this synoptic feature is the rain
chances beginning as early as the mid-morning. SBCAPE values around
1000J/kg could support development of convective precipitation in
central Missouri as a burst of upper-level energy pushes through.
Further south, rain will be far more dependent on the synoptic
disturbance. Precipitation will be constrained to the area beneath
the clouds, remaining east of Highway 65 regardless of forcing.
Confidence is high in our southeasternmost counties (specifically
Howell, Oregon, Shannon, and Ozark) seeing appreciable accumulations
between 0.1-0.5", and HREF LPMMs hint at a potential scenario where
far southern Howell and Oregon counties could see up to an inch of
rain. PoPs in the eastern Ozarks will remain in the 30-60% range
through the evening, with a sharp spatial decrease in chances (near
0%) west of Highway 65. Coverage will also decrease with northward
extent, likely being continuous in far southern Missouri and
becoming more shower-like further north.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Low rain chances (5-30%) linger into Monday, and PoPs reflect
scattered showers with low (if any) measurable accumulations. An
upper-level ridge will slowly start to build back into the area as
the week progresses and the synoptic pattern breaks the block, with
temperatures gradually warming through the week. Highs in the 80s on
Monday will warm enough to flirt with late-season 90s along and west
of the I-49 corridor by Wednesday, and warm temperatures in the
upper 80s and low 90s will continue through Friday. Low temperatures
in the 60s will follow this warming trend as well. PoPs remain below
15% through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Broken cumulus clouds have produced MVFR ceilings across
southeast Missouri this afternoon. Light to moderate rain over
this area will gradually spread west throughout the afternoon,
though chances of any precip reaching the SGF and BBG are
generally less than 20%. Additional MVFR to IFR ceilings appear
likely overnight into the early morning hours as low stratus
builds down.

A few gusty easterly winds near 20 kt will be possible this
afternoon before subsiding after sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Didio