Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
906 FXUS63 KSGF 141702 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1202 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances (30-60%) Today and Sunday east of Highway 65. Total rainfall amounts generally less than 0.50 inch. Many locations will remain dry. - Continued below average temperatures through the weekend with a warming trend next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 202 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis showed upper level energy spinning over the Mississippi/Tennessee border region. 00z KSGF sounding showed a fairly moist profile with a PW value around 1.5in. East northeast winds continue along with a low stratus deck. An area of showers continues across southeast Missouri, closer to the upper level energy. Today through Tonight: Given the light northeast winds and RH around 90-100%, areas of fog may develop through sunrise. Visibilities in the 1-4 mile range look reasonable with widespread dense fog not expected at this time. Most likely scenario is for stratus to build down over the higher elevations of the Ozark Plateau. Much like yesterday, these clouds will be slow to erode with HREF data suggesting areas along and east of Highway 65 may remain broken to overcast for much of the day. This will have a big impact on highs and have gone closer to the cooler NBM25th percentile with highs in the 70s east of Springfield with temps increasing into the 80s west towards Joplin. A piece of the shortwave energy will rotate west into the area during the day and there are indications of a few showers developing east of Highway 65 this afternoon. Mean MU CAPE values look to reach 500j/kg therefore there is a low chance of a thunderstorm as well across this region. Shortwave energy looks to move closer to the area overnight with additional rain showers east of Highway 65, especially across the far eastern Ozarks where rain chances are in the 40-50% range. Mean rainfall amounts from the HREF are generally in the 0.1-0.25in range east of Highway 65, mainly centered across south central Missouri. Sunday: Shortwave energy looks to continue moving west over the area during the day which may cause a repeat of Saturday. Areas east of Highway 65 have a 30-60% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon hours with the highest chances across the West Plains region. Clouds and precip again look to cause a wide range in highs with low to middle 70s east of Springfield and middle 80s west. HREF mean QPF does increase into the 0.25in-0.5in range across the West Plains region with the Sunday afternoon and evening rainfall. There is some model guidance that takes the rainfall Sunday a little farther west (west of highway 65) and we will have to monitor that with additional PoP updates. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 202 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Monday: Shortwave energy looks to become more diffuse/sheared apart as it moves north and east therefore rain chances look less (20%). Highs in the lower to middle 80s are likely if clouds clear out enough. Tuesday through Friday: Ensembles continue to suggest that the area will be in between systems with a general warming trend as 850mb temps rise back into the 18-20C range and a weak mid level ridge develops. Highs in the lower to middle 80s look likely along and east of Highway 65. Areas west of Highway 65, in moderate drought conditions, will heat up further with areas in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Thursday and Friday currently appear to be the warmest days of the upcoming week. These western areas may finally begin to see rainfall chances increase by the end of the week as a highly amplified trough takes shape across the Rockies which may allow for a corridor of rainfall to occur along a frontal boundary. Significant uncertainty exists however with respect to the eastern extent of this rainfall. The Climate Prediction Center does have a slight risk (20%) of heavy rainfall across eastern Kansas and far western Missouri by next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 For the 18z TAFS, may see some breaks in the overcast at BBG/SGF this afternoon and evening before the low clouds move back into the area overnight into Sunday morning. JLN will mainly be in VFR conditions, however BBG/SGF will have MVFR and IFR conditions. Most of the rain chances through this TAF period will remain east of the terminals. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Lindenberg