104
FXUS64 KSHV 311758
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1258 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Tricky update today that will bleed over into the overnight hours
as we should continue to lose storm coverage and intensity with
the precipitation currently across our southern zones with an
uptick in convection expected later today near the I-30 Corridor
of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR with the greatest storm coverage
expected this afternoon across the eastern half of our region
including Northern Louisiana. This seems plausible but is greatly
tied to just how much differential heating we see today. The
forcing is there as the upper level trough axis is basically
directly ovhd at this time and will be moving slowly eastward
during peak heating, thus it would make sense for the greatest
storm coverage to be across our eastern half late this afternoon
into the evening hours before dissipating late tonight. For this
reason, have redrawn pops to coincide with the above thinking and
continued this trend into the evening and overnight hours as
well.

For the Flood Watch, will hold onto all of it, even though I am
most concerned with the eastern half of our region as outlined
above. We will likely be able trim at least the western half of it
out with the afternoon package but will keep all options open once
we have new model guidance to look for the afternoon package.

Update has been sent...13.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

This pesky NW flow pattern continues to deal blow after blow with
the next round of convection already advancing into our western
zones early this morning. Fortunately, the incoming convection is
lacking in severity so far compared to what we observed yesterday.
In fact, the last remnants of the previous round are still exiting
our far eastern zones after producing numerous wind damage reports
and several inches of rainfall in some cases. With that in mind,
have opted to expand the current Flood Watch areawide and extend
it through 06Z tonight based on the expectation of at least a few
more rounds of convection today through late this evening, with
this morning`s round likely remaining sub-severe as much stronger
convection associated with an MCS shifts from Central into SE TX.

By this afternoon, reinforcing upper-level support in the form of
a potent shortwave will pivot east along and south of the Middle
Red River Valley and induce more robust convection across much of
the region. The threat of severe thunderstorms will become more
likely during this afternoon and early evening timeframe, owing to
MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and steadily increasing deep-layer shear.
This will promote both the threat of damaging wind gusts and even
a few tornadoes with some discrete storms possible across mainly
the southeast half of the region, where a Slight Risk is outlined
in SPC`s Day 1 outlook. Despite some uncertainty surrounding the
evolution and coverage of this late day/evening convection, it
seemed prudent to carry the Flood Watch through the first half of
tonight with a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall in WPC`s Day 1
ERO and an additional 1-3 inches of rainfall possible over the
next 24 hours.

It probably goes without saying at this point, but CAMs have been
of little help with timing and severity of this NW flow pattern
convection so can`t rule out additional extensions of the Flood
Watch. With that said, higher end PoPs continue through Saturday
although rainfall amounts should begin to drop off compared to the
past few days. Likewise, the threat of severe thunderstorms looks
to decrease as well with less forcing in play behind the departing
shortwave trough. Not surprisingly, mild temperatures will persist
given the extent of cloud cover and convection over the next few
days with highs generally in the lower to mid 80s and overnight
lows in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

We don`t fully escape NW flow quite yet for the latter half of
the weekend with additional disturbances traversing the Red River
Valley SE into our region. This will maintain at least low chance
to likely PoPs for Sunday, lower in NW zones and higher in the SE.
Expect one more day of below average temperatures before ridging
aloft begins to shift closer to the region to start the new work
week.

This first full week of June should see a return to more average
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and gradually lowering
rain chances as the upper ridge becomes more influential through
mid-week. Persistent southerly flow will continue through mid-week
before a cold front gradually seeps south into the region by late
Wednesday into Thursday, enhancing rain chances a bit more during
this timeframe. However, it appears the upper-level ridge will be
quick to reassert its influence on the region by the end of next
week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Mix of low, mid and high clouds across the airspace this
afternoon following the passage of an MCS to the SW. That being
said, light RA continues to work east across the region, while
TSRA is present just to the south of KPOE, working north. CAMs
have not handled the evolution of the complex very well to this
point, a theme that has been ongoing as we remain in this NW flow
pattern. This has generated very little confidence in what will
occur this afternoon. For now, elected to take an average of each
hi-res solution to get some handle on timing and coverage.
TSRA/SHRA probs will exist this afternoon, starting to think more
for the eastern terminals, before exiting the airspace after
00z-03z, with CIGs tanking overnight. Not ruling out some BR
through 12z before CIGs lift and we transition some OVC to BKN
after sunrise.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  86  74  88 /  40  70  20  40
MLU  69  85  70  87 /  60  80  30  50
DEQ  64  86  67  85 /  30  30  10  40
TXK  68  86  69  87 /  40  50  20  40
ELD  66  85  67  85 /  60  60  20  40
TYR  70  86  72  88 /  20  50  20  30
GGG  69  86  72  87 /  20  60  20  40
LFK  70  87  72  89 /  20  70  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through late tonight for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-
     136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...53