887
FXUS64 KSHV 020620
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
120 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.UPDATE...

Resent the zones for overnight to remove evening pops/wx.

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The last of a few remaining showers continue east of I-49 in Grant
and LaSalle with a slight chance for another few hours with our
06-12Z pops/wx, highlighting the patchy fog now for most areas
before daybreak. No changes needed with new issuance not far away.
/24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The long term pattern, starting Monday, is a story of heat and
some "currently" low end precip chances. As the upper trough to
the east departs, weak ridging looks to fill in it`s place to
start, supporting increasing MaxT`s through the upcoming week,
with temperatures gradually climbing with each day before maxing
out Thursday afternoon. During the period, can not rule out some
afternoon showers and thunderstorms given diurnally driven
instability and the chance for outflow driven convective
initiation. Guidance does point towards some small shortwaves
within the mid-level flow by mid-week which could support some
better coverage of PoPs if trends continue.

By the end of the period, a cold front will attempt to work into the
region, again supporting the chance for PoPs across the zones.
How this boundary is impacted by the guidance advertised ridge
pattern to the west will dictate how the boundary passage works
out. For now though, signs point towards brief relief from temps
climbing any higher than currently advertised.

Given the discussion surrounding the increase in high temps back to
the middle 90`s, higher dew point progression through the week will
support an increase in heat index values back towards the triple
digits. While no heat products are needed at this time, this will be
closely monitored in the coming days.

RK

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

For the 02/06Z TAF period, the majority of convection has exited
our airspace with all terminals now rain-free to begin the period.
In its wake, light winds and rain-soaked soils should help induce
patchy fog throughout much of the overnight until after daybreak
when improvements should commence. In addition, low stratus will
also likely result in MVFR/IFR cigs and possibly LIFR between the
09Z-14Z timeframe. With increased mixing/warming by late morning,
expect conditions to return to MVFR and eventually VFR closer to
midday with cigs lifting to around 3.5Kft and possibly scattering
out a bit more. Light and variable winds overnight will trend more
SE on Sunday between 5-10 kts with continued low confidence in any
convection. Therefore, this will be re-evaluated in the 02/12Z TAF
package.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  90  73  91 /   0  30   0  20
MLU  69  89  72  90 /  10  30   0  20
DEQ  66  88  70  86 /   0  30  10  40
TXK  67  90  73  90 /   0  30  10  30
ELD  66  89  70  89 /   0  30   0  30
TYR  69  89  73  89 /   0  30  10  30
GGG  70  90  72  89 /   0  30  10  30
LFK  71  90  74  90 /   0  40   0  20


&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...19