538
FXUS64 KSHV 100010
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
710 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase tonight, as
upper-level ridging begins to break down ahead of the trough and
cold front. Thankfully, organized rain chances continue to look
limited, with total QPF values remaining limited as well. The
front as a whole continues to look a little more diffuse, but
thankfully we can still expect a decent swing in temperatures
behind the front into Tuesday. Highs tomorrow will be limited by
the additional cloud cover as well, with highs only getting up
into the low to upper-80s. Lows tonight will still hover in the
mid-70s, before dropping behind the front tomorrow into the low to
upper-60s.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Thankfully, the long-term looks a little less active today as
well, as the one "big" midweek system may remain well to our west.
If you remember my discussion yesterday, you`ll remember me
talking about a lot of uncertainty regarding the scope and speed
of the disturbance moving SE out of the Rocky Mountains. Well, it
looks like that disturbance will work into central Texas by
Wednesday, where it will break apart into the day on Thursday.
This will keep that heaviest axis of rain to our west as well,
resulting in only scattered shower and thunderstorm chances in our
far western zones into Wednesday afternoon.

From there, upper-level ridging moves back overhead, with
afternoon highs climbing back into the mid to upper-90s. Organized
rain activity will be limited during this time, with only isolated
chances in our southern zones from seabreeze activity.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Upper ridge continues to slide into the northern GOM this
afternoon with TSRA north of the I-30 corridor. This should
remain well removed from the local terminals this evening, but
MVFR CIGs will be the bigger story overnight. As a cold front slides
south into the airspace early Monday AM, diurnal heating along
and ahead of the boundary will support TSRA/SHRA initiation by the
mid to late afternoon, impacting area terminals either directly
or located within the vicinity through the end of the period.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  88  69  89 /  10  20   0  10
MLU  70  86  65  86 /  10  20   0  10
DEQ  66  84  62  86 /  20  20   0  10
TXK  69  85  65  88 /  20  20   0  10
ELD  67  84  62  86 /  20  20   0   0
TYR  72  86  69  87 /  10  30  10  10
GGG  72  86  68  88 /  10  30   0  10
LFK  73  89  71  89 /  10  30   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...53