307
FXUS64 KSHV 091128
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
628 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday Night)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The early morning upper air analysis indicates that the center of
ridging aloft has shifted SE into SE LA/Nrn Gulf, with the water
vapor imagery corresponding with an increase in elevated moisture
from the W across TX, ahead of a closed low centered over NW old
MX/Srn AZ. Thus, areas of cirrus that were more prevalent earlier
this morning have since eroded in the drier air noted farther E
across Srn AR/LA. Sfc ridging has also shifted farther ESE along
the Cntrl Gulf Coast this morning, with the Srly low level flow
yielding higher sfc theta-e air N across the region, and even
areas of stratocu that have recently developed over portions of
extreme SE TX near BPT. Should see an increase in stratus develop
by/shortly after daybreak over E TX/Wrn LA, before lifting into a
scattered cu field by late morning into the afternoon areawide,
especially as the ridge aloft shifts farther SE away from the
region into the NCntrl/NE Gulf. However, one more day with above
normal temps is expected even as the ridge influence weakens, and
have raised NBM temps slightly to reflect similar readings
observed the last couple of days especially given the lack of
significant influence of low and elevated cloud cover. Resultant
heat indices should again range from 100-105 degrees areawide.

A weak shortwave trough noted from the TX Panhandle NE into NW OK
this morning remains progged to slip SE through OK into Nrn AR
today, which will reinforce a weak sfc front S through OK/AR, as
it enters the Nrn section of the region this evening. This front
should be the focal point for isolated to scattered convection
this afternoon, with good agreement amongst the various hi-res
progs in not entering the Nrn zones until after 00Z Monday. Have
introduced low chance pops this evening across NCntrl McCurtain
County OK, with slight chance pops farther S across the remainder
of SE OK/Nrn sections of SW AR, with the potential for isolated
convection redevelopment along the front as it slips SSW into
portions of extreme NE TX/SW AR overnight. Additional development
is expected along the increasingly diffuse front closer to the
attendant H850-700 trough Monday as it slips S to the I-20
corridor by the afternoon, where slight chance/low chance pops
were shifted S into N LA/E TX. The increased cloud cover should
also result in cooler temps as well, with drier air progged to
begin backdooring SW into SW AR/SE OK during the afternoon, and
into much of N LA/portions of E TX Monday night once diurnal
mixing ceases. The dry advection, as well as the loss of diurnal
heating, should result in any remaining convection diminishing by
sunset, with dry conditions returning Monday night.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Sfc ridging is progged to build S into the Lower MS Valley and
into much of the region Tuesday, resulting in near seasonal temps
but lower RH`s over much of the area. The medium range progs
continue to advertise a shortwave trough that will open up from
the closed low noted this morning over Nrn old MX/Srn AZ, that
will drift SE in the NW flow through the TX Panhandle Tuesday
morning into N TX during the afternoon. The ECMWF and its
ensembles have trended closer to the GFS and their ensembles with
convection development near the trough center as it spreads into E
TX during the afternoon/evening, before the trough slides SE
across the Sabine Valley into Cntrl/S LA Wednesday. Convection
development may be limited initially given the dry air entrainment
expected as it backdoors SW into E TX Monday night/Tuesday,
although more in the way of scattered convection will be possible
Wednesday over E TX/N LA with the progression of the trough axis
over these areas. The weakness aloft associated with the departing
trough may linger over Deep E TX/N LA Thursday which may focus
isolated mainly afternoon convection, where slight chance pops
were maintained for these areas. Otherwise, upper ridging that
will amplify over the Srn Rockies into W TX/much of old MX
Wednesday will begin to expand E across the Srn Plains and into
the region Thursday, resulting in a return to hot and dry
conditions with above normal temps again expected.

The remainder of the long term period next weekend remains a low
confidence forecast, with varying solutions amongst the medium
range progs on if and where a weakness would develop over the Gulf
as the ridge aloft expands E into the Mid-South and TN Valley. Did
not deviate from the NBM pops next weekend, with the potential for
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening convection over
N LA/Deep E TX Saturday afternoon, and areawide Sunday in response
to the more influential Erly flow that is more common over the
region during July-August than in mid-June. Above normal temps
look to continue though through the remainder of the long term
period as any more organized rains appear to affect the Cntrl and
Ern Gulf Coast region.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

For the 09/06Z TAFs, brief MVFR CIGs will rebound to VFR levels
through the coming hours, continuing for much of the day, with
SKC punctuated only by increasing bands of high clouds from the
west. CIGs may manage to descend to MVFR levels briefly near
daybreak tomorrow, ahead of incoming rainfall. Southwest winds
will continue, at speeds of 5 to 10 kts. As a boundary approaches
and lingers across our northern zones, a slight chance exists for
rain to return late in the period, continuing overnight into
Monday.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  75  89  70 /   0   0  20  10
MLU  95  71  86  65 /   0   0  20   0
DEQ  93  68  83  62 /   0  30  20   0
TXK  96  69  84  65 /   0  10  20   0
ELD  95  68  83  61 /   0  10  20   0
TYR  94  74  88  70 /   0  10  20  10
GGG  95  73  88  69 /   0  10  20  10
LFK  93  73  91  71 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...26