083
FXUS64 KSHV 090543
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

While the upper-ridge axis continues to slide east this evening
into the northern Gulf of Mexico, it`s influence will remain in
place for at least one more night. Mid and upper level cirrus will
start to enter the FA from the west this evening, but aside from
this, conditions will again be quiet. Mid to upper 80`s are still
present across area ASOS/AWOS sites this evening, but by sunrise
Sunday morning, temperatures should range between the low to mid
70`s. At this time, no major updates are needed to the present
forecast aside from adjusting hourlies to match latest trends.

RK

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Warm and quiet weather will continue to dominate the short-term,
with upper-level ridging remaining firmly in place over Texas.
Afternoon highs tomorrow will again range in the low to mid-90s,
with lows tonight and tomorrow ranging in the low to mid-70s.
However, by tomorrow night, the pattern will finally begin to
break down, as a deep trough begins to move through the midwest
and NE. It may take a few days for us to really feel the effects
of this trough, but in the short-term, rain chances will begin to
increase in our north zones into Monday morning. The bulk of this
trough action will take place towards the middle of the week,
which is where I will start with the long-term discussion

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Welcome! I`m glad you could join me. So, I have some good news,
and some bad news. The good news is; even though there`s weather
in the long-term, it`s still a far cry from what we`ve seen the
last two weeks. The bad news is; there is still some uncertainty
regarding a Wednesday system, with some guidance indicating
another round of potentially 1-3 inches of rainfall. This is an
outlier for sure, but given how much rain we`ve had so far this
year, it would be a disservice not to at least mention it. Now,
let`s take a look at all this in a little greater detail.

By Wednesday, that trough will be moving through the NE, with
another low/ridge combo setting up off the west coast. Given the
flow pattern aloft at both ends of the coast, our region will
return to pseudo NW flow aloft during this timeframe. Also during
this timeframe, a disturbance looks to move off the Rocky
Mountains and into the S. Plains, where it will ride this flow
pattern SE. It`s at this point that the long-range guidance
scatters. Some guidance has the disturbance remaining to our west,
where others pull it through our region at rocket speed. The
outliers have the disturbance moving into the region, and closing
off from the main flow aloft, before finally getting pushed out
into Friday. With much more certainty, shower and thunderstorm
chances will return to the forecast during this timeframe, with
much more uncertainty regarding QPF amounts and coverage.
Thankfully, even if we do end up with the far wetter solutions,
this scenario seems to resemble 1-3 inches of rain, as opposed to
3-6 inches. The other good thing is, beyond Thursday, we appear to
be setting up for extended period of dry weather, with upper-level
ridging moving back into the region.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

For the 09/06Z TAFs, VFR conditions look to continue for much of
the night, with SKC punctuated only by increasing bands of high
clouds from the west. CIGs may manage to descend to MVFR levels
briefly near daybreak, rebounding to SCT to BKN high clouds later
in the day. Southwest winds will continue, at speeds of 5 to 10
kts. As a boundary approaches and lingers across our northern
zones, a slight chance exists for rain to return late in the
period, continuing overnight into Monday.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  90  71 /   0  10  20  10
MLU  96  71  88  67 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  93  67  84  63 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  94  70  87  67 /   0  10  10  10
ELD  94  68  85  64 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  91  72  88  71 /   0   0  20  10
GGG  92  72  88  70 /   0   0  20  10
LFK  93  73  90  71 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...26