Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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083 FXUS64 KSHV 090543 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 848 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 While the upper-ridge axis continues to slide east this evening into the northern Gulf of Mexico, it`s influence will remain in place for at least one more night. Mid and upper level cirrus will start to enter the FA from the west this evening, but aside from this, conditions will again be quiet. Mid to upper 80`s are still present across area ASOS/AWOS sites this evening, but by sunrise Sunday morning, temperatures should range between the low to mid 70`s. At this time, no major updates are needed to the present forecast aside from adjusting hourlies to match latest trends. RK && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Warm and quiet weather will continue to dominate the short-term, with upper-level ridging remaining firmly in place over Texas. Afternoon highs tomorrow will again range in the low to mid-90s, with lows tonight and tomorrow ranging in the low to mid-70s. However, by tomorrow night, the pattern will finally begin to break down, as a deep trough begins to move through the midwest and NE. It may take a few days for us to really feel the effects of this trough, but in the short-term, rain chances will begin to increase in our north zones into Monday morning. The bulk of this trough action will take place towards the middle of the week, which is where I will start with the long-term discussion /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Welcome! I`m glad you could join me. So, I have some good news, and some bad news. The good news is; even though there`s weather in the long-term, it`s still a far cry from what we`ve seen the last two weeks. The bad news is; there is still some uncertainty regarding a Wednesday system, with some guidance indicating another round of potentially 1-3 inches of rainfall. This is an outlier for sure, but given how much rain we`ve had so far this year, it would be a disservice not to at least mention it. Now, let`s take a look at all this in a little greater detail. By Wednesday, that trough will be moving through the NE, with another low/ridge combo setting up off the west coast. Given the flow pattern aloft at both ends of the coast, our region will return to pseudo NW flow aloft during this timeframe. Also during this timeframe, a disturbance looks to move off the Rocky Mountains and into the S. Plains, where it will ride this flow pattern SE. It`s at this point that the long-range guidance scatters. Some guidance has the disturbance remaining to our west, where others pull it through our region at rocket speed. The outliers have the disturbance moving into the region, and closing off from the main flow aloft, before finally getting pushed out into Friday. With much more certainty, shower and thunderstorm chances will return to the forecast during this timeframe, with much more uncertainty regarding QPF amounts and coverage. Thankfully, even if we do end up with the far wetter solutions, this scenario seems to resemble 1-3 inches of rain, as opposed to 3-6 inches. The other good thing is, beyond Thursday, we appear to be setting up for extended period of dry weather, with upper-level ridging moving back into the region. /44/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 For the 09/06Z TAFs, VFR conditions look to continue for much of the night, with SKC punctuated only by increasing bands of high clouds from the west. CIGs may manage to descend to MVFR levels briefly near daybreak, rebounding to SCT to BKN high clouds later in the day. Southwest winds will continue, at speeds of 5 to 10 kts. As a boundary approaches and lingers across our northern zones, a slight chance exists for rain to return late in the period, continuing overnight into Monday. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 95 74 90 71 / 0 10 20 10 MLU 96 71 88 67 / 0 10 10 10 DEQ 93 67 84 63 / 0 10 10 10 TXK 94 70 87 67 / 0 10 10 10 ELD 94 68 85 64 / 0 10 10 10 TYR 91 72 88 71 / 0 0 20 10 GGG 92 72 88 70 / 0 0 20 10 LFK 93 73 90 71 / 0 0 20 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...26