486
FXUS64 KSHV 221628
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1128 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1116 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Welcome to the Fall season, and since 7:44 am with the equinox,
but we are still on a summer diurnal course with top of the hour
readings in the mid to upper 80s. Our winds are stirring S/SW and
will likely back again in the mid afternoon to more S/SE. Just
another partly cloudy sky of fair weather cumulus. No changes
needed to highs with a range of low to mid 90s on course as winds
stir better over the next few hours. Speaking of stirring winds,
we have been tasked (with many other offices) to transition to 4
upper air flights starting at midnight tomorrow night in prep for
a challenging tropic scenario. Many sites in our region will be
adding these extra flight times 06/18Z through Thursday afternoon.
NHC disturbance #2 in the NW Caribbean Sea has only a 10% chance
over the next 48hrs. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

By Tuesday night, a much deeper trough and cold front will begin
moving through the Plains, working into the region by Wednesday
morning. Here, the low looks to become cut off and stall somewhere
overhead. This will do two things: keep cooler air filtering into
the region, and allow for narrower bands of heavier precipitation
to form along deeper moisture flow from the Gulf. In turn, below
average temperatures are possible into the weekend, aided by the
increased cloud cover and rain. Additionally, a few locations
could see localized 1-2 inches of rainfall with these heavier
bands. Unfortunately, these amounts will be isolated, and many
locations won`t see much QPF over the next seven days. /44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the 22/12z TAF update...Surface observations are showing a bit
more locations reporting lower visibility than originally
anticipated. Have added some BR and lower visibility for KMLU
through 22/13z this morning. KLFK has been the other location with
visibility below 6sm this morning, however, multiple non airport
sites are also reporting some lower visibility and BR. Once this
burns off later this morning, VFR conditions should prevail for
the rest of the day. We will see an increase of cloud cover,
something we are already seeing on satellite imagery, from the
northwest through the day and into the overnight hours. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  74  92  72 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  94  71  93  72 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  92  70  85  62 /   0  20  60  10
TXK  94  73  89  68 /   0   0  30  20
ELD  94  70  91  69 /   0   0  10  20
TYR  94  74  89  69 /   0  10  30  10
GGG  93  72  90  69 /   0   0  20  10
LFK  92  71  91  71 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...33