Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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392 FXUS64 KSHV 101947 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 247 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue mainly in two distinct areas as a series of weak upper level disturbances moves across Texas and Louisiana. Unorganized pulse convection is the dominant mode south of Interstate 20 in Deep East Texas eastward into Central Louisiana. This activity has developed in the vicinity of a weak surface cold front. Farther north, additional convection has been ongoing for most of the day along the elevated frontal boundary. The southern convection, which has been far more robust, has been fueled by surface-based CAPE values in excess of 3500 J/kg. The northern convection developed along a very sharp gradient of SBCAPE, which is now decreased below 1000 J/kg per latest mesoanalysis. This seems logical given the rapidly weakening for the northern storms. Given the trends noted above, the convection should become more focused across the southern half of the area through the remainder of this afternoon. Deep layer shear is very meager suggesting these storms are likely driven mostly by diurnal instability. Therefore, the convection is expected to gradually weaken this evening, and no additional rain chances are anticipated overnight. The frontal boundary and upper trough should be well to the west and south of the forecast area for Tuesday. This should keep the vast majority of the precip out of the area, but a few isolated diurnally driven showers or thunderstorms will be possible across portions of East Texas Tuesday afternoon as another shortwave trough slowly drifts eastward across North Texas. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions should persist tonight. Northeasterly surface winds should also advect some drier and more stable air into the region. With the cloud cover beginning to become more scattered in nature, this should allow a warming trend to begin, but daytime high temperatures on Tuesday should still range from the mid 80s to lower 90s. CN && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Tuesday`s shortwave trough will still be lingering across the region and will be slowly making it`s way eastward over Louisiana and into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This may allow for a slight chance for isolated showers or thunderstorms across Deep East Texas Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, no additional rain chances are anticipated until late next weekend. An upper level ridge is progged to move eastward into the Southern Plains during the latter half of the work week. With surface ridging also overhead, strong subsidence should keep the area precip-free until Sunday. Clearing skies and abundant sunshine will allow the warming trend to increase. By Friday, daytime high temperatures should be well into the 90s areawide. Some locations may be flirting with the century mark on Saturday. However, dewpoints and humidity levels are expected to low enough to keep peak heat index values below Heat Advisory criteria through the next seven days. The forecast becomes increasingly uncertain for Sunday and into early next week. The upper level ridge should move east of the region while southwesterly flow aloft and low-level southerly flow returns. Medium range models are in decent agreement suggesting a low from the Gulf of Mexico will move northward into Louisiana bringing renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms to much of the area as early as Sunday, but higher rain chances are expected to start the following work week. CN && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A cold frontal boundary slowly sinking south through the Four State region will bring isolated to scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms across the region through early evening before dissipating. A few storms could produce brief gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours, but potential for this direct impact at TAF sites (besides LFK) is generally pretty low and thus is mainly expressed as VCTS. Otherwise, brief MVFR conditions due to ceilings in the 2 to 3 kft range are possible through the afternoon at nearly all TAF sites, although VFR conditions will mostly prevail. Winds will be out of the northeast at 6 to 12 mph through the day, except tending to be temporarily variable in and around any thunderstorms. Other than cu ranging from 2 to 5 kft, expect higher clouds spreading across the area and based about 15 kft. Tonight through the morning tomorrow should be dry with the higher clouds continuing, although a few hour window of IFR ceilings are probable around daybreak at LFK. Winds tomorrow will again be in the 6 to 12 mph and from the northeast through east direction. /50/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 70 91 70 91 / 10 10 0 10 MLU 66 87 65 87 / 10 0 0 0 DEQ 62 86 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 65 89 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 63 87 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 70 88 69 88 / 20 20 10 20 GGG 69 89 68 89 / 10 10 10 10 LFK 71 90 70 87 / 30 30 10 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...50