Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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274 FXUS64 KSHV 091533 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1033 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1029 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 No update is needed to the overnight forecast package at this time. /44/ && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday Night) Issued at 412 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The early morning upper air analysis indicates that the center of ridging aloft has shifted SE into SE LA/Nrn Gulf, with the water vapor imagery corresponding with an increase in elevated moisture from the W across TX, ahead of a closed low centered over NW old MX/Srn AZ. Thus, areas of cirrus that were more prevalent earlier this morning have since eroded in the drier air noted farther E across Srn AR/LA. Sfc ridging has also shifted farther ESE along the Cntrl Gulf Coast this morning, with the Srly low level flow yielding higher sfc theta-e air N across the region, and even areas of stratocu that have recently developed over portions of extreme SE TX near BPT. Should see an increase in stratus develop by/shortly after daybreak over E TX/Wrn LA, before lifting into a scattered cu field by late morning into the afternoon areawide, especially as the ridge aloft shifts farther SE away from the region into the NCntrl/NE Gulf. However, one more day with above normal temps is expected even as the ridge influence weakens, and have raised NBM temps slightly to reflect similar readings observed the last couple of days especially given the lack of significant influence of low and elevated cloud cover. Resultant heat indices should again range from 100-105 degrees areawide. A weak shortwave trough noted from the TX Panhandle NE into NW OK this morning remains progged to slip SE through OK into Nrn AR today, which will reinforce a weak sfc front S through OK/AR, as it enters the Nrn section of the region this evening. This front should be the focal point for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon, with good agreement amongst the various hi-res progs in not entering the Nrn zones until after 00Z Monday. Have introduced low chance pops this evening across NCntrl McCurtain County OK, with slight chance pops farther S across the remainder of SE OK/Nrn sections of SW AR, with the potential for isolated convection redevelopment along the front as it slips SSW into portions of extreme NE TX/SW AR overnight. Additional development is expected along the increasingly diffuse front closer to the attendant H850-700 trough Monday as it slips S to the I-20 corridor by the afternoon, where slight chance/low chance pops were shifted S into N LA/E TX. The increased cloud cover should also result in cooler temps as well, with drier air progged to begin backdooring SW into SW AR/SE OK during the afternoon, and into much of N LA/portions of E TX Monday night once diurnal mixing ceases. The dry advection, as well as the loss of diurnal heating, should result in any remaining convection diminishing by sunset, with dry conditions returning Monday night. 15 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 412 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Sfc ridging is progged to build S into the Lower MS Valley and into much of the region Tuesday, resulting in near seasonal temps but lower RH`s over much of the area. The medium range progs continue to advertise a shortwave trough that will open up from the closed low noted this morning over Nrn old MX/Srn AZ, that will drift SE in the NW flow through the TX Panhandle Tuesday morning into N TX during the afternoon. The ECMWF and its ensembles have trended closer to the GFS and their ensembles with convection development near the trough center as it spreads into E TX during the afternoon/evening, before the trough slides SE across the Sabine Valley into Cntrl/S LA Wednesday. Convection development may be limited initially given the dry air entrainment expected as it backdoors SW into E TX Monday night/Tuesday, although more in the way of scattered convection will be possible Wednesday over E TX/N LA with the progression of the trough axis over these areas. The weakness aloft associated with the departing trough may linger over Deep E TX/N LA Thursday which may focus isolated mainly afternoon convection, where slight chance pops were maintained for these areas. Otherwise, upper ridging that will amplify over the Srn Rockies into W TX/much of old MX Wednesday will begin to expand E across the Srn Plains and into the region Thursday, resulting in a return to hot and dry conditions with above normal temps again expected. The remainder of the long term period next weekend remains a low confidence forecast, with varying solutions amongst the medium range progs on if and where a weakness would develop over the Gulf as the ridge aloft expands E into the Mid-South and TN Valley. Did not deviate from the NBM pops next weekend, with the potential for isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening convection over N LA/Deep E TX Saturday afternoon, and areawide Sunday in response to the more influential Erly flow that is more common over the region during July-August than in mid-June. Above normal temps look to continue though through the remainder of the long term period as any more organized rains appear to affect the Cntrl and Ern Gulf Coast region. 15 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 For the 09/06Z TAFs, brief MVFR CIGs will rebound to VFR levels through the coming hours, continuing for much of the day, with SKC punctuated only by increasing bands of high clouds from the west. CIGs may manage to descend to MVFR levels briefly near daybreak tomorrow, ahead of incoming rainfall. Southwest winds will continue, at speeds of 5 to 10 kts. As a boundary approaches and lingers across our northern zones, a slight chance exists for rain to return late in the period, continuing overnight into Monday. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 97 75 89 70 / 0 0 20 10 MLU 95 71 86 65 / 0 0 20 0 DEQ 93 68 83 62 / 0 30 20 0 TXK 96 69 84 65 / 0 10 20 0 ELD 95 68 83 61 / 0 10 20 0 TYR 94 74 88 70 / 0 10 20 10 GGG 95 73 88 69 / 0 10 20 10 LFK 93 73 91 71 / 0 20 30 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...20