Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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929 FXUS64 KSHV 120541 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1241 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1004 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Isolated convection has diminished this evening so have removed the small area of slight chance PoPs across Deep East Texas as additional overnight convection is not expected. Otherwise, the forecast is on track with no other changes needed at this time. Updated text products have been sent. /19/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 At the surface, a weak stationary front was draped west to east across Central Texas and into Southern Louisiana. A broad upper- level shortwave trough continues to slowly drift east across North Texas and has aided in the development of a thunderstorm complex over North and Central Texas. This complex is gradually moving eastward and may approach our westernmost counties of East Texas early this evening. Latest mesoanalysis indicates a sharp instability gradient from northwest to southeast across East Texas. Most of the thunderstorms should remain along and to the south of this gradient, which should also move slowly farther south as northeasterly winds from a broad surface ridge over the Ohio River Valley advects drier and more stable air into the region. This should keep most of the precip to our south and southwest, but a few isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible mainly west of a line from Mount Vernon TX to Lower Toledo Bend Reservoir. If the storms can persist, they should quickly weaken this evening as instability wanes. I did keep some slight-chance PoPs in the forecast for early this evening across portions of East Texas south of Interstate 20. After a dry overnight period, the shortwave trough will be moving overhead and the nocturnal low-level jet may also aid in the renewed development of a few showers or thunderstorms early Wednesday morning across Central and Deep East Texas. However, the upper trough will moving east of the region during the day resulting in a gradual weakening of forcing across the area. Therefore, PoPs should decrease through late Wednesday morning before coming to and end completely by midday or early afternoon. As drier air continues to advect into the region, skies should become more clear to partly cloudy, and the increase in sunshine should allow temperatures to warm a few degrees higher than today. Daytime highs should generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. CN && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Strong ridging aloft and at the surface will result in a dry forecast through at least Sunday afternoon. With mostly clear skies and light winds, there will be little to hold back the warming temperatures during the latter half of this work week. Daytime highs will be well into the 90s areawide by Friday. Some locations may be very close to 100 degrees F Saturday and Sunday. Peak heat index values will likely rise to between 100 and 105 degrees F, but are generally expected to remain below Heat Advisory criteria. The forecast becomes increasingly uncertain for Sunday and beyond. Medium range models are in good agreement suggesting a rich plume of tropical moisture will surge northward into the area this weekend and into early next week. This should result in an increase for mainly diurnally-driven convection areawide beginning Sunday afternoon and continuing into Monday and Tuesday. The models still show some differences regarding placement of the axis of heavier rain, so there is still quite a bit of uncertainty at this time range. However, confidence is high that this will be our next significant chances for rain across the area. CN && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 For the 12/06Z TAFs, a mix of BKN mid level and denser high level clouds will transition largely to high clouds by daybreak, with a few brief vis reductions possible, but no widespread impacts expected. The redevelopment of a Cu field looks to begin in the midmorning hours, defined by FEW/BKN CIGs in the lower VFR range. Slight chances for thunderstorms across deep east Texas may bring impacts to KLFK in the afternoon, but confidence is not yet sufficient to prevail impactful conditions. Light northeast winds will continue to drop off overnight, attempting to establish a more true easterly orientation during the day, but not increasing much above sustained speeds in the neighborhood of 5 kts. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 91 68 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 89 62 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 89 62 91 64 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 90 64 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 88 60 91 63 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 89 68 93 68 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 90 66 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 91 68 93 67 / 20 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...26